Profile image
By silveristhenew (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:

Payrolls Preview: Downside Surprise Eyed From Winter Weather, Govt Hiring Freeze

Friday, April 7, 2017 10:25
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

(Before It's News) / by Tyler Durden / Apr 7, 2017 6:00 AM

Here is the consensus for the key numbers the BLS will report at 8:30am ET on Friday morning

  • March Nonfarm Payrolls Exp. 180K, the lowest print of 2017 (Prey. 235K, Jan. 227K) US Unemployment Rate (Mar) M/M Exp. 4.7% (Prey. 4.7%, Jan. 4.7%)
  • Average Hourly Earnings Exp. 0.20% (Prey. 0.20%, Jan. 0.30%)

Big Picture: Friday’s non-farm payrolls comes ahead of the May 2-3rd Fed meeting, where according to Fed Fund markets there is only a 5% chance of a 25bps hike The Fed’s favoured inflation metric (PCE) edged above the mandated 2% Y/Y in February and inflation remains under the spotlight where the rate hike path is concerned. As such, once the fast money moves subside, as has been the case in the past several months, the focus may well fall on the average hourly earnings to see If the uptick in inflation is holding up. This is particularly the given the February report showed real personal spending pulling back slightly by 0.1%, when a 0.1% increase was forecasted. Last report showed AHE dipping to 0.2% from 0.3% in January’s print and a return to Jan’s levels could indicate that a slightly more optimistic outlook on inflation is justified. Its worth noting that this report comes amid a backdrop of bad weather and temporary headwinds are factored in.

Goldman’s payolls forecast is even more dour, as economist Spencer Hill says the bank estimates nonfarm payrolls increased 170k in March, compared to consensus of +180k and February’s 235k increase. The factor behind the potential donwside surprise are a “significant drag from unseasonable winter weather, which we believe may have boosted February payroll growth by 30-50k and could weigh on March growth by as much as 30-60k.” Some more details on the adverse weather impact:


The post Payrolls Preview: Downside Surprise Eyed From Winter Weather, Govt Hiring Freeze appeared first on Silver For The People.


Report abuse


Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories



Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.