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First Time Jobless Claims Continue Bubbling At Record Levels
Lee Adler: Initial jobless claims have reached an all time record low level for this time in March in a continuing string of record lows has now persisted since September 2013, with the exception of a few weeks here and there. Employers continue to hoard workers at bubble levels.
The data on weekly first time unemployment claims has painted a picture of a US economy that is in a bubble that has been boiling over for 18 months, driven by the massive central bank money printing campaigns and ZIRP.
The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 291,000. The Wall Street conomist consensus guess was 293,000. That was a near bulls eye.
We don’t play the expectations game, whose outcomes are random and meaningless in the big picture. Our interest is in the persistence of the trend in the actual, unmanipulated, not seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Tracking and analyzing the actual total of state weekly counts is the best way to see what’s really going on. The Department of Labor reports the actual unadjusted data clearly and illustrates it in comparison with the previous year. The mainstream financial media ignores that data.
According to the Department of Labor the actual, unmanipulated numbers were as follows. “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 259,671 in the week ending March 14, a decrease of 18,254 (or -6.6 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 19,127 (or -6.9 percent) from the previous week. There were 285,970 initial claims in the comparable week in 2014.”
The week to week change was better than average for that week of March for the second straight week, reversing 2 weeks of below average performance. The actual week to week change was a decrease of 18,000 (rounded). The 10 year average for that week is a decrease of 23,000 (rounded). The current drop compared with a decrease of 16,000 in the comparable week of 2014.
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Source: http://marketdailynews.com/2015/03/20/first-time-jobless-claims-continue-bubbling-at-record-levels/
