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Amir Rapaport: Ever-changing Middle East and challenges facing Israeli

Saturday, February 22, 2014 11:10
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(Before It's News)

The Middle East Continues to Change
Amir Rapaport in a column on the ever-changing Middle East and the =

challenges facing the Israeli defense establishment

Amir Rapaport 21/2/2014

http://www.israeldefense.com/?CategoryID=3D483&ArticleID=3D2756

Regional Status Picture: A regional status picture derived from the =

situation appraisal of the Israeli defense community for early 2014:

+ Syria is still disintegrating
+ Lebanon is on the way to a civil war and disintegration
+ Iraq is already disintegrated
+ Egypt is coming to its senses and the Egyptian Army consolidates its hold =

vis-=E0-vis the World Jihad elements in the Sinai and presses on with its =

struggle against Hamas in Gaza.
+ Jordan is very stable
+ Hamas rules the Gaza Strip (almost) unchecked
+ Palestinian Authority in the Judea and Samaria region: The level of =

violence there depends on the progress of the political negotiations (also).

Let=92s begin with Syria: the first ships carrying Syrian chemical weapons =

have sailed recently, but it is still uncertain whether Assad will try to =

conceal some of the inventories he possesses. The agreement with the USA =

regarding the disarmament of chemical weapons has provided the Assad regime =

with an insurance policy of sorts, but contrary to the impression one may =

get from the world press, Assad is still far from deciding the outcome of =

the civil war in Syria. On the contrary, Assad continues to lose ground and =

call in Hezbollah reinforcements from Lebanon to assist him in the primary =

battles. The battles in Syria currently concentrate on the attempt by Assad=
=92s =

military to establish territorial continuity between Damascus (parts of =

which have been captured by rebel forces) and the Alawi-dominated areas in =

north-eastern Syria. The areas bordering with Israel, on the Golan Heights, =

are mostly dominated by rebels of various factions, including World Jihad =

men who dominate the southern part of the Syrian Golan Heights.

The Syrian civil war is rapidly drifting into Lebanon. Car bombs and even =

rocket attacks against the Dahiya quarter, the Hezbollah stronghold in =

Beirut, are directly associated with Hassan Nasrallah=92s support of Bashar =

Al-Assad. As far as Israel is concerned, these are not foreign news: the wa=
r =

in Lebanon is drifting into Israeli territory, too. For example, the rocket =

attack from Lebanon into Israel in December 2013 was carried out by a Jihad =

organization that attempted to provoke Israel into a confrontation with =

Hezbollah =96 a case of upside-down thinking. What about the Judea and Sama=
ria =

region? The average level of violent activities is crawling upward, but the =

real test will take place in the spring, when the nine months allotted to =

the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians come to an end. Will =

the negotiations be extended or will they be interrupted?

In Israel and in the Palestinian Authority they have been busy recently =

consolidating their respective responses to the suggestions made by US =

Secretary of State John Kerry during his recent visits to the region. The =

Israeli defense community has already rejected the American suggestion to =

settle for Israeli presence at the border crossings in the Jordan Valley an=
d =

rely on satellite and ground surveillance technology that would replace the =

physical presence on the ground. Israel=92s previous defense minister, Ehud =

Barak, was willing to =93consider=94 such ideas. The present Minister, Mosh=
e =

(=93Bogie=94) Yaalon, has bluntly declined.

The Jihad Era: The elements responsible for most of the fire incidents in =

late 2013 and early 2014 (rockets attacks from the Sinai and the Gaza Strip =

against Israel, as well as the attacks along the borders with Syria and =

Lebanon) were organizations calling themselves =91Salafist=92 organizations=
. The =

Salafists are the most extreme of extremist Muslims. They totally reject =

progress and aspire to return to the days of the great Islamic Caliphate =

that existed after the age of Muhammad the Prophet. They advocate Jihad war =

against all infidels =96 Jews, Christians and even Muslims who do not follo=
w =

the teachings of their sect.

In the age of new terrorism and Jihad, orders and instructions are not =

issued by speech but through the Internet. There is no structured chain of =

command, the very last activist can establish direct contact with the senio=
r =

leaders of Al-Qaeda (all under assumed names, naturally), on Facebook or =

through WhatsApp. The social networks convey millions of messages every day=
, =

and finding the ones that can alert of possible terrorist preparations is a =

highly complex undertaking. Nevertheless, the intelligence agencies and =

systems manage to obtain high-quality information even from those networks.

According to Israeli estimates, in early 2014 the military regime in Egypt =

is gaining momentum in its war against the Jihad organizations. The =

Jihadists in the Sinai Peninsula still impose a major threat as far as =

Israel is concerned, especially on air traffic in and out of the town of =

Eilat. This is the reason why the Israel Security Agency (Shabak) ordered, =
a =

few months ago, that the flight corridors leading to the town be changed so =

as to reposition them as far away as possible from the unruly territory of =

the Sinai. However, the big picture shows that the Jihadists are being =

pushed out of the Sinai and that they are shedding blood in their =

confrontations with the Egyptian Army. Occasionally, they succeed in =

releasing pressure or sending some sort of =93signal=94 in the form of rock=
ets =

fired at Eilat. These attacks are, in fact, intended to undermine the =

relations between Israel and Egypt.

The most severe blow, as far as Hamas in Gaza is concerned, has been the =

fact that in the context of their confrontation with the Salafists, the =

Egyptian forces had almost completely =93dried out=94 the underground tunne=
ls =

that enabled free movement of terrorists as well as the smuggling of arms =

and goods to and from the Sinai =96 to and from the Gaza Strip. This blow h=
as =

had both economic and operational implications: since Operation Pillar of =

Defense (November 2012), Hamas has not been able to renew the smuggling of =

missiles from Libya or Iran through the Sinai, and is now dependent entirel=
y =

on its own manufacturing potential (they are already capable of =

manufacturing missiles with a range that extends to Tel-Aviv, and unmanned =

airborne vehicles).

Nevertheless, Hamas continues to prepare for the next significant round of =

hostilities against Israel, and those preparations include the subterranean =

medium =96 the tunnels Hamas excavates under the fence separating between t=
he =

Strip and Israel could provide the infrastructure for the next kidnapping =

attack, which would ignite the next confrontation.

Iran: Despite the warming relations between Iran and the West, as reflected =

at the Davos conference in early 2014, Israel still regards Iran as the No.=
1 =

danger in the coming year as well.

According to the Israeli perception, Iran is fooling the entire world and =

will continue to strive for the Bomb clandestinely after the sanctions that =

had been imposed on it have been dramatically reduced.

But has the option of an Israeli attack against Iran been taken off the =

table? Absolutely not! It may not be relevant only during the first few =

months of the implementation of the interim agreement with Iran, which came =

into effect on January 20, 2014. Israel will attempt to collect intelligenc=
e =

that would prove that Iran continues to strive for the Bomb, the agreement =

with the West notwithstanding, and if evidence to that effect is obtained =
=96 =

Israel may surprise the world by staging an offensive strike against Iran=
=92s =

nuclear installations, some time during the later half of this year.

Of all things, it is prevailing sense in Jerusalem that the USA is willing =

to reach an agreement with the Iranians at almost any price which could pus=
h =

Israel to stage the attack on its own.

Meanwhile, Back at the Mossad: The fact that as far as Israel is concerned =

Iran continues to fool the entire world and that it is getting closer to th=
e =

first bomb could also be regarded as a failure of sorts of the Israeli =

Mossad, whose highest priority mission of the last decade was to delay the =

Iranian nuclear project (a mission which has thus far been executed with a =

fair degree of success, through an extensive range of forestallment =

operations, as reported by foreign sources around the globe).

The atmosphere around this agency is not a comfortable one these days. The =

Mossad has undergone an organizational upheaval in recent years. Pursuant t=
o =

the retirement of former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, not less than three =

division heads left the organization as well, including the heads of two of =

the primary divisions, Tevel and Caesarea. The transition of Yossi Cohen, =

formerly the deputy chief of Mossad, to the position of Chairman of the =

National Security Council two months ago has also generated some shockwaves =

in the agency. Above all, the agency is currently undergoing yet another =

structural change, led by Mossad chief Tamir Pardo. In the context of this =

change, the agency=92s staff is being reinforced and responsibilities that =

were once the exclusive domain of the operational divisions are being =

assigned to it. This change, too, is not going down without internal =

opposition =96 and that=92s putting it mildly.

=94Te=92uzah=94: The IDF was unable to begin the year 2014 with a multi-yea=
r plan =

approved by the political echelon.

The original plan, Te=92uzah (=93valor=94) had to undergo revisions pursuan=
t to =

the allegedly final government decision regarding the final defense budget =

for 2014.

IDF may submit the Te=92uzah plan to the government for final approval in t=
he =

coming weeks, where its implications would be explained. Concerns in the ID=
F =

do not run very high =96 it is fairly clear that after all of the =

presentations and graph and figure-laden transparencies have been presented =

(the number of tanks, for example, is currently being reduced to the number =

the IDF had on the eve of the Yom-Kippur War, owing to the budget cuts and =

also because of the changing priorities of the IDF), the defense budget wil=
l =

be increased further, post factum, even if it remains curtailed when =

compared to the budgets of previous years.

Defense Industries: The cuts in the defense budgets, in Israel and in the =

West, present a major challenge to the Israeli defense industries. In =

addition to the cuts, the fact that the largest market of the Israeli =

defense industries =96 India =96 is in a state of near-standstill owing to =
the =

elections being held in the subcontinent, is very problematic indeed. If yo=
u =

add to it the lenient export permit policy recently applied in the USA and =

Europe (including Germany, which is becoming a world leader in defense =

exports) and the =93hunger=94 of western industries for clients in the mark=
ets =

where the Israeli industry is regarded as firmly established =96 then the =

challenge will become even more acute.

At the bottom line, the Israeli defense industries are preparing for a =

certain decrease in new orders over the course of 2014, compared to previou=
s =

years that were peak years for Israeli defense exports. Nevertheless, the =

Israeli defense industries start off the new year by massively participatin=
g =

in the giant exhibitions to be held in New-Delhi and in Singapore during th=
e =

first and second weeks of February.

The excellent reputation of the Israeli defense industries may enable them =

to successfully negotiate the year 2014, which is going to be a tough year =

for everyone.
________________________________________
IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on A=
rab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

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  • What a complete load of fookin gobbledygook

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