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Weekly Commentary: Israel effectively deterred from destroying
Weekly Commentary: Israel effectively deterred from destroying
“game-changing weapons” held by Hizbullah and Hamas?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 18 November, 2015
Ever since Israel embraced “quiet for quiet” with the Gaza Strip it was
public knowledge that the Government of Israel had literally no red lines
regarding the weapons that Hamas and others could deploy in the Gaza Strip.
Now it turns out that this is also the case for weapons deployed by
Hizbullah in Lebanon.
Here’s what Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said today at the Jerusalem
Post Diplomatic Conference in Jerusalem:
“We don’t always identify these game-changing weapons when they pass Syrian
territory courtesy often of Iran and always with Hezbollah doing the
transport. And if we don’t see it, we don’t hesitate to degrade the stocks
of the Syrian Army of the same weaponry in equal measure.”
Now walk with me through what this means:
Step #1 Hezbollah takes “game-changing weapons” from Syria to Lebanon.
Step #2 Israel determines that the “game-changing weapons” are now
held/deployed by Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Step #3. Israel responds by destroying an equal number of the same
“game-changing weapons” held by the Syrian Army in Syria.
Step #4. Whoever is supplying the Syrian Army with the “game-changing
weapons” replaces the destroyed “game-changing weapons”.
Question: Is there any actor in the supply of “game-changing weapons” to
Hezbollah who is in any way deterred by the above process?
These “game-changing weapons” aren’t being manufactured in some secret
location subject to severe production limitations, they are rolling off
modern factory lines in Iran, Russia and elsewhere.
The supply of these “game-changing weapons” to Syria isn’t via some
complicated, convoluted and severely restricted delivery system. The
Russians have an ongoing massive supply system in operation and Iran is also
very active.
The Israeli destruction of “game-changing weapons” held by the Syrian army
in response to “game-changing weapons” held by Hezbollah in Lebanon is no
more than an additional cost of supplying the weapons to Hezbollah.
What should we be doing?
Excellent question.
I am not proposing an answer.
Just pointing out that on two fronts today: the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, our
policy is that when we discover that terrorists posses “game-changing
weapons” that we do not to act to destroy them.
And I fear, yes genuinely fear, that this policy is supported by the absence
of a serious “red team” analysis of just what Hamas, Hezbollah and the
others can do with these “game-changing weapons”.
And I say this because I suspect that serious “red team” analysis would
conclude that these “game-changing weapons” constitute such a clear and
present danger that they warrant considerably more treatment than simply
being added to the target banks for future wars.
A reminder: we know that there was no serious “red team” analysis of the
Hamas tunnels. We know this because every Israeli security official who
commented on the Hamas tunnels after Operation Protective Edge said the same
thing: we knew Hamas had the tunnels but we didn’t realize what they could
do with them. This would not have been the case if there had been a serious
“red team” analysis.
________________________________________
IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis
Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations
Website: www.imra.org.il
Source: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=69023
