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Arab News : Trump’s Syria safe zone plan ‘realistic’ but hinges on
Trump’s Syria safe zone plan ‘realistic’ but hinges on Russia’s consent
Arab News – 28 January, 2017
http://www.gulfinthemedia.com/index.php?id=794240&news_type=Top&lang=en
With US President Donald Trump’s formal executive order to establish “safe
zones” in Syria expected imminently, experts see the plan as realistic in at
least two areas of the country.
But it all hinges on Russia’s acquiescence and implicit support to minimize
the US military commitment, the Syria-watchers suggested.
The news of a safe zone emerged this week following the leak of a draft
executive order halting most Syrian refugee resettlement in the US. It
suggested “a plan to provide safe areas in Syria and in the surrounding
region in which Syrian nationals displaced from their homeland can await
firm settlement, such as repatriation or potential third-country
resettlement.”
While officials from both the State and Defense departments told Arab News
they are waiting for “formal directives” before commenting on hypothetical
plans and drafts, experts who closely follow the Syrian conflict saw the
move — in its timing and intent — as “realistic” and achievable.
Trump’s bargain
Following the leak of the draft, Trump told ABC News that he “will
absolutely do safe zones in Syria.” This was the second time since winning
the election in November that he has spoken with such clarity on the issue.
On Nov. 17, the then President-elect Trump told his supporters: “in Syria,
take a big swatch of land, which believe me, you get for the right price,
OK?… what I’d like is build a safe zone, it’s here, build a big beautiful
safe zone and you have whatever it is so people can live, and they’ll be
happier.”
Nicholas Heras, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security and at
the Jamestown Foundation, tells Arab News that Trump “is serious about this
proposal, as are senior members of his administration.”
The bargain that Trump, the businessman, sees in the safe zone plan is the
following, explains Heras, “a way to alleviate human suffering in Syria
while at the same time prevent future refugee flows that threaten the
stability of Europe and which put political pressure on the US to accept
Syrian refugees.”
Such a plan would be designed “with minimal commitment from Washington,”
says Hassan Hassan, a senior fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East
Policy in Washington.
Logistics and potential layout
Hassan, co-author of the bestseller “ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror,” tells
Arab News that “no more resources than are already dedicated to the fight
against ISIS in eastern and southern Syria would be required from the US.”
It is in these areas where the US is battling Daesh that the safe zones
would be located. Heras identifies two locations in Syria “where there is
the immediate opportunity that safe zones could be built.” The first is in
the north “in the territory stretching from the eastern Aleppo suburbs to
the Syrian-Iraqi border in the northeastern tip of Syria,” he adds. The
second “is in southwestern Syria, along the Syrian-Jordanian and
Syrian-Golan Heights borders.”
Hassan agrees that these areas “are de facto safe zones and what is lacking
is a policy to help people return to their areas and rebuild their
communities.” He sees such an approach “essential and not optional, if the
US is to ensure ISIS does not regenerate.”
While there is a risk of the Assad government bombarding these areas, Heras
notes that the regime and its allies have had “a military manpower problem
and can only carry out limited military campaigns to take and hold territory
that is close to Assad’s statelet in western Syria.” The areas under
consideration “have been independent from the Assad government and under
self-governance since 2011 and 2012, and are not likely to return to Assad
government control for a long time,” he adds.
Russia’s green light?
Both Hassan and Heras see Russia’s blessing or at least acquiescence to such
plans as critical. “No safe zones will be built in Syria without Russia’s
acceptance,” says Heras. Moscow’s role will be key to “apply pressure on the
Assad government, and to work to reduce the influence of the Iranians and
their proxy forces inside of Assad’s statelet, as part of a broader ‘Balkans’-like
international stabilization mission for Syria.”
Russia’s improved relations with Turkey and their latest joint cooperation
in Syria on the political and counterterrorism fronts make these safe zones
“more realistic,” says Hassan. He explains that “Turkey and Russia have been
working together to deescalate the situation, and this relationship can be
utilized to neutralize the civilian population from the ongoing operations.”
These foreign spheres of influence in Syria “make it easy to reach a bargain
to establish safe zones in areas where hostilities between the main warring
parties are not reduced or non-existent,” Hassan adds. “The fragmentation of
Syria along various spheres of influence is an opportunity to create safe
areas that allow displaced people, especially in neighboring countries, to
go back to the country and unlike before, this does not need to be seen by
Damascus and its allies as a threat.”
Hassan emphasizes the importance of coordination “with countries in the
region and in Europe to build the capacity of the local communities to
police their own areas and prevent jihadists from building influence and
networks in those areas.”
As far as the US military commitment is concerned to protect these safe
zones, it would all be contingent on Assad’s response, says Heras. “If Assad
decides to attack them, the US will need to be able to strike Assad
government targets, either using standoff weapons like cruise missiles, or
by launching airstrikes,” adds the defense analyst. If the Assad government
chooses to wage a ground campaign, “it will require US ground forces — tens
of thousands — with local partners to hold them off.”
Source: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=72098
