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Weekly Commentary: Yes for Autonomy on Steroids No for State Minus
Weekly Commentary: Yes for Autonomy on Steroids No for State Minus
Dr. Aaron Lerner 25 January 2017
Dear Reader,
What follows is not a philosophical discussion.
President Donald Trump’s interest in going down in history as the one who
“made the deal” combined with his drive and the very real potential of
collaboration with Putin within some framework changes Netanyahu’s
Palestinian “state-minus” program from a curios to a concept that requires
immediate analysis.
This week (namely after President Trump’s inauguration) Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu reiterated that his goal is a sovereign Palestinian state
that is demilitarized and within which Israel retains security control.
Mr. Netanyahu terms this a “state minus”.
This isn’t a new concept. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been talking about
it for several years, citing the post World War II deployment of troops in
sovereign Germany and Japan as a precedent for the Palestinians to accept
such an arrangement in a sovereign Palestinian state.
The efficacy of such an arrangement hinges on having a “watertight”
agreement.
But there is no such thing as a “watertight” agreement.
History is fraught with “watertight” programs that failed.
And in our case, unfortunately, even a mediocre Palestinian leadership could
come up with a scenario that would free them of the “indignity” of
demilitarization and the “violation of its sovereignty” by the IDF.
And let’s face it: we Israelis have a miserable track record dealing with
substantive violations of agreements by our neighbors.
At this very moment Hamas is openly producing missiles and other weapons in
gross violation of signed agreements that were witnessed by the USA, Russia
and others.
Our response? “Quiet for quiet”.
Hamas can make any and all battle preparations as long as it doesn’t shoot.
Dear Reader: There are many well meaning experts out there who paper over
this fundamental problem by saying that their policy analysis and
recommendations are predicated on there being “appropriate security
arrangements”.
But no such arrangements can exist.
Once there is a sovereign Palestinian state it will remain a sovereign
Palestinian state even after it bars the IDF and openly arms itself with
prohibited weapons.
“Autonomy on steroids” as Minister Bennett put it?
Absolutely.
But not sovereignty.
In a few short weeks Prime Minister Netanyahu will be meeting with President
Trump where he intends to lay out his “state-minus” solution.
It is my fervent hope that, in the interim, Mr. Netanyahu is somehow
convinced to substitute “state minus” with “autonomy on steroids.”
________________________________________
IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis
Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations
Website: www.imra.org.il
Source: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=72087
