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Is It Now All Over For Obama? Electoral College Computer Model That Has Correctly Predicted Elections Since 1980 Opts For Romney
Bad news Barack: Electoral College computer model that’s correctly predicted presidential elections since 1980 shows big WIN for Romney
- Forecast predicts loss for Obama with 218 votes versus 320 for Mitt Romney
- University of Colorado model concludes all swing seats to vote Republican including Colorado, Ohio and Florida
- Contrasts latest figures which predicts 282.6 votes for Obama and 255.4 for Romney
- New poll shows slightly more Americans are expecting Obama to win in November
- Obama enlists the help of former President Bill Clinton in new TV ad blitz on the economy
By Sara Malm, Thomas Durante and Associated Press
PUBLISHED:06:05 EST, 23 August 2012| UPDATED:15:55 EST, 23 August 2012
A model which has foretold the correct results of the Electoral College selections in U.S. Presidential elections since 1980, has predicted a loss for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.
The forecast was made by two professors at the University of Colorado who used economic data and unemployment figures from each state to predict a Republican win come November.
Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry’s study predicts 218 electoral votes for President Obama and 320 for Romney with the Republican candidate winning every seat currently considered to be on the fence.
Obama loss, Romney win: The forecast model predicted disappointing results for President Obama with 218 seats to Romney’s 320 with Romney taking home the crown in all current swing states
The prediction model uses economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, including income per capita and both state and national unemployment figures.
The research concluded that U.S. voters blame Democrats for high unemployment rates but hold Republicans more responsible for low per capita income.
It also showed that the advantage of holding the White House disappears for Democratic candidates when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 per cent.
‘Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,’ Professor Bickers said.
Winning? Romney, photographed on Thursday from his campaign plane in Hobbs, New Mexico, has been picked to win by Electoral College prediction model, but a new poll argues the contrary
Favourite? A new Ap/GfK poll says that most Americans believe President Obama, pictured on Wednesday in New York, will win in November
The professors’ analysis concluded that Romney would take home all swing states including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.
Colorado voted for Obama in 2008 but the current president is predicted a marginal loss at 48.1 per cent against Romney’s 51.9 per cent, although with the caveat that only the two major parties were considered.
Although the economy has improved under Obama, Professor Berry said in a statement that it remains to be seen whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms.
‘If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008,’ Prof Berry said.
This show the latest forecast from the New York Times which predicts a win for Obama in the Electoral College selections
Although the model devised by Prof Berry and Prof Bickers has predicted the correct results of eight consecutive presidential elections, the data used for analysis was collected in June.
An update with figures from September is due next month which the team said could have a completely different outcome.
The results of the model’s calculations are in stark contrast to current polling data. The New York Times’ latest figures for the Electoral College selections forecasts a blue win with 282.6 electoral votes for Obama and 255.4 for Romney.
