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Constitutionally, taxes must originate in the House of Representatives. Obamacare originated in the Senate. It is, therefore, unconstitutional. George Will seems to believe the courts will shoot down the individual mandate on this basis.
The ACA’s defenders say its tax is somehow not quite a tax because it is not primarily for raising revenue but for encouraging certain behavior (buying insurance). But the origination clause, a judicially enforceable limit on the taxing power, would be effectively erased from the Constitution if any tax with any regulatory — behavior-changing — purpose or effect were exempt from the clause.
The Court of Appeals sits six blocks from the Senate, which committed the legislative legerdemain of pretending to merely amend a House bill while originating a new one. Across the street from the Senate sits the Supreme Court, where this case may be headed.
Two years ago, the Supreme Court saved the ACA by declaring its penalty to be a tax. It thereby doomed the ACA as an unconstitutional violation of the origination clause.
If the case is argued successfully, the entire rotten framework of Obamacare would be knocked down at once.
I am not optimistic. The court isn’t immune to voter opinion and in November 2012 they watched Americans fail to elect the last chance to pull out the weed by roots. Americans had it within their grasp to end Obamacare and they reelected Obama. I am guessing they will manage to discover some stratagem to keep this Senate originated tax alive.