Novorossia\Ukraine update 2\25\2015..Ukraine behaves strangely after signing the Minsk agreements

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http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/126482.html

The leader of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko commented on the process of implementation of the basic agreements of establishing a cease-fire in Donbass.

— Ukraine is pulling in military forces and will start an offensive by late March – early April. While we sat at the concert, the Ukrainian punitive troops shelled Gorlovka using heavy weapons.

— Furthermore, in the Minsk agreements there is no item about deploying a peacekeeping force. Ukraine behaves strangely after signing the Minsk agreements. We see remarks by Yatsenyuk or by Poroshenko. Ukraine is not interested in Minsk.

— Over the last day we recorded 30 incidents of shelling the DPR territory from the side of the Ukrainian punitive troops. They are trying to undermine the Minsk agreements in every way, not a single Ukrainian politician said: we stopped shooting and we are pulling back military vehicles. We are actually pulling back and they are pulling in, sometime from Kharkov, at other times from Zaporozhye.

— I have an impression that this is a provocation that will disrupt the Minsk agreements. If there will be violations from the Ukrainian side, if Kiev will continue to shell the DPR positions and the cities, then all of the vehicles that we pulled back today will return.

PS. Actually, Zakharchenko once again confirmed the obvious: the junta needs a truce at best as a peaceful respite for bringing the units that were battered during the winter campaign into order, the increase of the military group in Donbass (through mobilization, restored and reactivated materiel, and also through the probable weapon shipments from abroad). Continued shelling, provocations (like an explosion in Kharkov), the refusal to pull back heavy weapons (with a mockery of an excuse ‘due to shelling’, which is carried out by the junta itself) serve the goals of supporting low-intensity military action, which are supposed to derail even the basic agreements and lead to restarting the military action as the Ukrainian military will reach combat readiness and as the weather will become favorable for offensive action.

It is quite clear that the military and political leadership of the DPR doesn’t have any illusion in this respect, because it know perfectly well how the junta actually observes the “truce” and prepares for the spring campaign. At current tendencies, the military action will most likely restart sometime in the second half of March – early April.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2015/02/ukraine-sitrep-feb-24th-2015.html

The situation on the line of contact is generally calm. The Novorussian forces are withdrawing their heavy weapons according to schedule while the junta forces are, by most reports, not or, not much. The excuse for these delays is that “the necessary conditions have not been created”. In reality, the problem is that Poroshenko has very little control over the various armed forces. Apparently, the regular armed forces do more or less obey him, and since these are the most heavily armed, there is some hope that they will eventually withdraw. The various death-squads (volunteer battalions, internal forces, etc.) will probably resist as much as possible, but since they don’t have much heavy firepower, that is probably not a major obstacle right now.

There is also a very real possibility that Poroshenko himself might be preventing that withdrawal. The problem is not in the withdrawal of heavy guns by itself (the junta knows that the Novorussians will not attack) but that after completing this point of the Minsk 2 Agreement (M2A) the junta will have to go down the list and that is simply something the Nazis in Kiev cannot do. My guess is that all this talk about sending in peacekeepers has exactly the same rationale: to stop the implementation of M2A in a way that could not be blamed on Kiev. Clearly, M2A has delivered a crushing blow to the stance of the junta by forcing it to do something it cannot do: negotiate and work with the Novorussian resistance. I have no doubt that Poroshenko wants to break out of M2A, but his problem is how to do it without taking the blame for it. Hence the foot-dragging with an otherwise rather straightforward withdrawal and all that talk about peacekeepers.

he regime of Poroshenko is clearly in a very difficult situation. Roughly speaking, Poroshenko & Co represent the interests of oligarchs masquerading as Nazis while his opposition is the real thing – bona fide Nazi crackpots who feel that their “revolution of dignity” was stolen from them, that the new regime is every bit as corrupt as the old one, and far more incompetent. They are right, of course. So now more and more of these “grassroots Nazis” are threatening Poroshenko with a Third Maidan or even a revolution.

Now, it is true that by most accounts the USA has a tight control over the hardcore Nazi crazies in the Ukraine (via leaders like Iarosh) but I am beginning to detect this very old pattern of the puppet breaking lose from the puppeteer which we have all seen in Afghanistan, in Libya and Syria. I would argue that the neo-Nazis crazies in the Ukraine are very similar to the Takfiri freaks of ISIS or the so-called “Syrian opposition”. The chances of that kind of hate-filled ideology slipping out of the control of those who fostered it (the USA) is very high.

NATO has been keeping busy. In fact, according to “British Commander Land Forces Lieutenant General Sir Adrian Bradshaw” NATO is preparing to repel a Russian invasion. In his own words Russian expansionist ambitions could quickly become “an obvious existential threat to our whole being”.

Apparently, the British feel that the Baltic States and Poland have greatly surpassed the UK in hysterical russophobia and fear-mongering and that now is the time to catch up with them with even more terrifying statements. What is sure is that Sir Adrian sure look extremely worried on his official picture.

The OSCE has taken notice with grave concern at the de-accreditation of over 100 Russian media sources in the Ukraine. But not because this might be a violation of free speech or journalism, no, but because, I kid you not, the OSCE is concerned that as a result of this de-accreditation “the Russian audience might be deprived from balanced reporting form the Ukraine”!!! The OSCE also added that the organization “understands that national security reasons” behind the Ukrainian decision.

Yet again, all I can say is that I fully agree with V. Nuland.

The Saker

http://en.voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/3541-the-war-in-novorossia-online-02242015-chronicle.html

Message from militias:

“The militia holding ground in the area of Donetsk airport suffered shelling three times during the night:

at 18.20 with mortars from the village of Opytnoye and with cannon artillery from Avdeyevka;

at 18.30 with tanks from the village of Peski.”

President of Ukraine Poroshenko reached an agreement with the United Arab Emirates on the supply of arms and military equipment to Kiev. This was stated by advisor to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Anton Gerashchenko in his Facebook.

“President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE, Colonel-General Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. During the meeting an agreement was reached on cooperation with the United Arab Emirates in the supply of certain types of arms and military equipment to Ukraine, “
- was said in a statement. In addition, Gerashchenko said that the types and amounts of supplies will not be disclosed.

Message from militia:
“Launch of two missiles was recorded in Kramatorsk. One of them took off and fell nearby, exploded (probably a bad start, it did not immediately fly up but sidewise, in Artyomovsk direction). The shock wave was heard in Slavyansk, Nikolayevka, Kramatorsk “.

Message from militiaman with the call sign “Rog”:
“The truce is violated roughly and everywhere, there are constant clashes. And we have to respond, unless the AFU are getting pretty brazen! There were counterclaims again in the area of Bakhmutka (as usual Novotoshkovskoye and 29th checkpoint) and the area of Popasnaya! In Lugansk several SRGs were caught on February 23. There was a counter fight between two SRGs in the area Valuiskoye – Bolotennoye, the ICVs and tanks arrived to help each. In general, the enemy has minus ICV, we have one tank damaged.

Message from News office of Novorossia militia:
“The situation is tense, AFU continue attacks and sabotage and intelligence activities. Ukrainian military continued violation of the Minsk agreements in a number of areas. There was some shelling of militia positions with small arms. In addition, militia holding ground in the vicinity of the airport in Donetsk were fired using cannon artillery and tank weapons simultaneously from two directions from the firing positions near the villages of Opytnoye and Avdeyevka. Performing acting ceasefire, the defenders of Donbass did not respond to provocations and did not open fire. The main AFU efforts were directed on holding their previous positions and replenishing stocks and ammunition needed to conduct further hostilities, as well as on sabotage and intelligence activities. “

Message from journalists:
“The 16th Russian Emergencies Ministry convoy went to Rostov region carrying humanitarian aid to Donbass. The column left Noginsk Rescue Emergency Center this morning. Cars are directed to Kovalyovka where next convoy carrying humanitarian aid for the people of Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics will be formed on the territory of the Don Rescue Emergency Center. In the Rostov region cars from Noginsk will be joined by cars from other Russian regions. Most of the cargo is food, medicines, daily necessities and other facilities for the survival of the population of Donbass “.

Deputy Defense Minister of Donetsk People’s Republic Eduard Basurin refuted accusations against militias of preparation for the offensive on Mariupol.

We do not have a new equipment in the area of ​​Mariupol. Offensive is not expected

- Basurin told reporters.

http://en.voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/3542-summary-of-hostilities-in-novorossia-on-february-24.html

On February 24, Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics began a full-scale withdrawal of heavy weapons from the contact line set by Minsk Agreement. The Ukrainian side, in turn, has not started the withdrawal of equipment cynically referring to the ongoing bombardment of the cities of Novorossia which it conducts itself.