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NH voters slightly more engaged in GOP presidential primary
By Paul Briand
Yesterday, I posted some analysis of a poll that measured voter engagement in the Democratic presidential primary here in New Hampshire.
Today, the other shoe has dropped — a poll that measured Granite State voter engagement in the Republican presidential primary.
The newest WMUR Granite State Poll on the GOP primary in our first-in-the-nation primary state has two key points when it comes to voter engagement: 1) “the Republican electorate is somewhat more engaged in the 2016 primary than it was at a similar point in 2007” and 2) undeclared voters are more likely to vote in the Republican primary in 2016.
New Hampshire’s undeclared voters are registered neither as Republican or Democrat, and they have the opportunity in a partisan primary to choose a Republican or Democrat ballot when they arrive at the polls.
The new poll, done by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said: “Currently, 40 percent of undeclared voters say they plan to vote in the Republican primary, only 23 percent plan to vote in the Democratic primary, and 37 percent say they will not vote in either primary or are unsure.”
This underscores the long-held New Hampshire premise that undeclared voters hold the most sway in any partisan election.
Their engagement is directly related to how interesting a contest a primary is likely to be.
At this stage of the game on the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the clear frontrunner among voters who are willing to commit to a candidate. Undelcared voters may feel they won’t have much of an impact – or say – in this race.
But the Republican primary is incredibly fluid at this point, as the new WMUR poll points out. It included 20 – yes 20 – Republicans who have announced their intention to run for president in 2016 or who are seriously thinking about it.
In terms of favorability among Granite Staters likely to vote in the GOP primary, the survey said: “Florida senator Marco Rubio, Kentucky senator Rand Paul, and Wisconsin governor Scott Walker currently are the most popular candidates among New Hampshire Republican primary voters – 60% have a favorable opinion of Rubio, 51% have a favorable opinion of Paul and 50% have a favorable opinion of Walker. No other candidate breaks 50% in favorability ratings.”
In terms of voter support at this early stage, the survey said this: “There continues to be no frontrunner in the Republican race. Currently, 15% of likely Republican primary voters support Bush followed closely by Rubio (12%), Walker (11%), Paul (10%) , Cruz (6%), Trump (5%). Perry (4%), Carson (4%), Fiorina, (4%), Christie (3%), Huckabee (3%), Jindal, (2%), Pataki (2%), Santorum (2%), Kasich (1%), and Graham (1%). All other potential candidates receive less than 1% support, and 14% say they are undecided.”
Live Free or Die Alliance
www.livefreeordiealliance.org
Source: http://townhall.livefreeordiealliance.org/xn/detail/4091641:BlogPost:71588
