Online:
Visits:
Stories:
Profile image
By RedState (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views

Now:
Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:
Total:

Why the Democrats are quietly terrified of this youth vote report.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015 13:38
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

(Before It's News)

AP_533049180867NBC put out a head-to-head poll today (Hillary Clinton vs. various opponents), and while a lot of people are focusing on the fact that she’d lose to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 94% and Ben Carson I want to drill down on some of the youth vote aspects.  Greg Sargent over at the Washington Post put up some of those crosstabs: he – reluctantly – conceded that Clinton and Rubio were tied at 45 each among 18 to 34 year old voters, while still pointing out that Clinton leads Donald Trump 54/33 and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100% 49/40.  But what Sargent did not mention is that all of these numbers represent a serious decline from Barack Obama’s 2012 performance against Mitt Romney in this demographic.

Doing an apples-to-apples comparison is difficult here, given that the Washington Post’s own exit poll numbers for the 2012 election happened to break things down to 18-29 year old voters (Obama over Romney 60/37) and 30-44 (Obama over Romney 52/45).  However, Quinnipiac did poll in October of 2012, and did give a breakdown of 18-34 year old voters. They came up with Obama over Romney 62/30 among 18-34 year old voters, and 49/46 among 35-54 year old voters.  Under the circumstances, I think that it’s perfectly reasonable to point out that Clinton isn’t just doing horribly against Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 94%.  She’s doing almost as badly against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100% and under-performing against Donald Trump*.

All of which matters a great deal, because for all of our side’s current worries about the nomination process, the Democrats have an even more pressing one. The Democrats have been acting like Barack Obama’s unique amalgamation of interest groups and sub-demographics represents the floor of their support. The reality?  It was actually pretty much their ceiling. And if Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100% can compete with Hillary Clinton for the youth vote – and cutting Barack Obama’s lead over Romney in half qualifies as competing, yes – then it’s going to be a very messy general election season for the Democrats.

Yeah, I’m all teared up about that, too.

Moe Lane

PS: So why are the younger folks moving away from the Democrats?  Beats me.  Maybe, after eight years of horrible school lunch programs, they associate “Democrats” with “miserable people who don’t have taste buds, and hate me because I do?” – Don’t laugh, folks.  Elections have hinged on less.

*I don’t want to assume that she’s doing as badly against Ben Carson. I don’t have those numbers. It wouldn’t surprise me, though.

The post Why the Democrats are quietly terrified of this youth vote report. appeared first on RedState.



Source: http://www.redstate.com/2015/12/15/democrats-youth-vote/

Report abuse

Comments

Your Comments
Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

Top Stories
Recent Stories

Register

Newsletter

Email this story
Email this story

If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.