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Sabato’s Crystal Ball and 538’s Election Forecast Is A DISASTER For Trump
People have seen the polls the last few days. The USS Trump is headed right towards a yuge iceberg and Donald is standing on the bow arms raised shouting, “I’m the king of the world!” while completely oblivious to what is going on around him.
Remember when Trump supporters were giddy as he took the lead in the Real Clear Politics average by one point for a day? That’s gone. Hillary Clinton’s lead is in the RCP average is 6.8 points. The turnaround in the polls has been stunning. Contrary to the narrative, Trump did not get a bump in the polls following the Republican National Convention. Trump’s rise coincided with James Comey’s rebuke of Hillary Clinton and his confirmation of what everybody had been saying all along – that she lied about her emails and classified information. The convention was actually a disaster for Trump as he came out of it with more people 15 points less likely to vote for him.
In addition to all of the horrible polling for Trump, Professor Larry Sabato’s latest crystal ball is seriously bad news for Donald Trump. Here is a snapshot:
As it stands right now, Trump is in similar territory John McCain was in for the 2008 campaign. In that race, Barack Obama won 365 electoral votes to McCain’s 173. What makes Trump’s numbers worse despite at the moment winning more electoral votes than McCain is 2008 was a perfect storm year for Democrats. The economy was in the tank, George W. Bush and the GOP were incredibly unpopular and Barack Obama appeared to be this transformational leader. By contrast, Hillary Clinton has high negatives, people don’t trust her and she’s one of the weakest candidates the Democrats have put up since Michael Dukakis in 1988.
And she’s still winning big.
Over at 538 (another recent bragging point for Trump fans. Eric Bolling was beside himself with glee when he announced how Trump had moved ahead in the forecast), things are just as bad. Here is the latest forecast for Hillary vs. Trump:
An eighty percent chance at this point Hillary wins. If you notice, the 538 electoral college numbers are similar to what Sabato is calling.
More bad news. No candidate coming out of the conventions with a lead has ever lost the Presidency.
Could Trump turn this around? Maybe. But that means he’d actually have stop behaving like a jackass and start focusing on running for President. Something tells me this won’t happen. Trump loves the adoration he gets at his rallies talking about absurd crap. For him to suddenly discuss actual issues and focus on Hillary Clinton would seem “boring” to him. He’s still under the delusion (as are his followers) he can win the general election the same way he won the primaries.
I don’t need a magic 8 ball to know the answer is, “Not likely.”
The post Sabato’s Crystal Ball and 538’s Election Forecast Is A DISASTER For Trump appeared first on RedState.
Source: http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/08/05/sabatos-crystal-ball-538-election-forecast-disaster-for-trump/
