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How Much Will Trump’s Debate Loss Affect the Race?

Wednesday, September 28, 2016 1:13
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(Before It's News)

The consensus among people who are not paid to say otherwise or otherwise invested in a Donald Trump victory seem to more or less agree that Donald Trump lost the debate last night; the question is really by how much. Gravis, who was hired by Breitbart, scored it a narrow win for Clinton. PPP, an equally unreliable source, scored it a 52-40 win for Clinton. CNN’s poll, meanwhile, scored it an overwhelming win on the order of Romney’s whitewashing of Obama in the first 2012 debate.

How well these polls reflect the actual impression of the American public is a completely different question. Personally, I also scored the debate with a slight edge to Clinton, with the caveat that I would say that Trump probably won the first 15 minutes of the debate, which are the most important. In the later stages of the debate, the wheels came completely off for Trump, and who knows how many actually undecided people were still up watching at that point.

Now comes the part where we wait to see whether the debate actually had an effect on the public’s perception of the race, and if so, how much. I tend to think overall “not much” – even if you feel that Trump exposed himself as an absolute failure who is unqualified for the office, he didn’t do so in a way that was exactly new to anyone. For better or for worse, a lot of the country is more or less okay with a psychopath in the Oval Office, as long as the psychopath is not named Hillary Clinton.

But let’s suppose that the public really saw it differently, and that it ends up being scored as an overwhelming win for Hillary Clinton. What would that do to the state of the race?

Well, from a baseline standpoint, I think most people would accept (including David Axelrod, who admitted as much during CNN’s post-debate coverage last night) that it’s pretty much impossible to kick anyone’s butt in a debate worse than Mitt Romney did to Barack Obama in the first debate of 2012. Here’s what that dominant debate performance did during the next week of the polls:


About a 4 point swing in a single week. In modern politics, that’s amazing. By this point of a race, there are fewer undecideds than there have ever been, and for a single event to have had such a monumental swing in a race is truly astounding. That having been said, it isn’t anything like a 10 or 15 point swing like you might have seen from an equivalent performance in years past.

As Trump has been aptly demonstrating, you can’t do almost anything in the modern political age to fall behind more than 7 or 8 points, tops. Now here are the next two weeks:


As you can see, a pretty ephemeral result. A number of things contributed to this: Obama righted the ship during the October 16th debate – not winning it outright but again establishing himself as a competent debater who was in fact tuned in to the election at hand. But equally important, the possible lanes for variation have just gotten more and more narrow. If politics were a bowling lane, the gutters at this point would be about 10 inches apart.

What this means, most likely, is that we are headed for yet another final month of the election season that is filled with uncertainty about who is ahead, who is likely to win, and what the state of the race is. I think Clinton probably helped herself slightly on Monday night, but not enough to alter this race permanently – at least in part because such a thing is not really possible in Presidential debates anymore.

The post How Much Will Trump’s Debate Loss Affect the Race? appeared first on RedState.


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  • The notion that he “lost” the debate is absurd.
    The only thing he said that is possibly detrimental to his campaign is his references to reagan, which, nobody wants to see another reagan depression. The thought of returning to reaganomics makes working men cringe.

    These debates mean very little. Peoples minds are made up.
    The only purpose the debates have is to display personalities, not to display agendas.
    The american public is at least intelligent enough to know that what politicians say in debates is largely bullshit and has little to do with what they can accomplish.

    Everyone knows our corporately owned congress will fight President Trump tooth and nail, and that they certainly will not allow President Clintons old lady to accomplish anything.

    Trump already appears to be the ruthless player in the game who will get his way one way or another, and will not let congress walk all over him. That and the fact he wants to resurrect America from the ashes is the bottom line to why he is winning.

    He won the debate based on the simple fact he connected with the working man and the law abiding citizens.

    This presidential auction hinges on who has more registered voters, those living on the government ( as in taxpayers) dime and those who are in this country without permission , or those who are law abiding hard working Citizens.

    This isn’t a contest between personalities and individuals, it is a contest between the dependents and the providers.

  • The polls taken say Trump 52% and Slithering Hilary 48% . But signs in yards say a much different story ! A much wider margin . The polls are usually taken in democrat areas to appease the NWO media and it’s agenda for American take over so they can depopulate like they did in Germany with Hitler . Esau the Vatican , natzi , luciferian Edomite whom in Malachi 1:1-4 GOD said HE hated . Then you have Ishmael the Muslim , UN , black meteorite worshipping idiots that read the Koran that says if you won’t worship their meteorite you are to be killed . This is what the democrats now are playing with . Most of them are from one of these factions and are trying to destroy America , Australia and Europe because we are of the lost 10 tribes of Israel . This is why you are hated by them ! 30,000 guillotines ordered by the Muslim in the white house is now in FEMA camps waiting for some crisis that will run you to their camps so they can separate you and kill most of you . Their Georgia Guide stones say the want to kill 6 1/2 billion out of the 7 billon on earth now . Look them up ! The democrat which claim liberal actions means they are lies , cheaters , killer , thieves and fakes . They do whatever is nessecary to achieve their agenda . And most of you are not included in their agenda !

    • “But signs in yards say a much different story !”

      This is a good point, I noticed this past week that I seen a hilary sign in a yard for the first time, but have been seeing Trump signs everywhere. Then again, I don’t live in one of americas ghetto cities, I am sure the places that pay good welfare have a lot of hilary signs.

      Just because the media and the talking heads declare someone a victor means nothing, in reality the media seems to represent nothing more than social engineering and brainwashing.
      They know that if they keep repeating something over and over again, the herd will start reciting it as well. AM talk radio has made gazillions practicing that very tactic.

  • Who are you? This isn’t 08 or 12 your crap means nothing dems picked a loser and it is scaring the hell out of them and the rest of the depopulation agenda organizations. let’s ask the readers hear; where does the depopulation need to begin

    • While reading your post the fleeting thought went through my mind that perhaps depopulation isn’t such a bad idea………

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