Two Principles of The People's War

Written by Micah White, PhD (@LeaderlesRevolt)

We are less than four years away from a decisive people’s victory in one or more nations. If our leaderless revolution can survive through mutation, innovation and escalation then we stand a good chance of flanking the dinosaurs and taking legislative control of a State after a period of sustained unrest.

Our people’s war is asymmetric. And it is to our advantage that we are the weaker side. In How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict, military historian Ivan Arreguín-Toft does a statistical analysis of conflicts since 1800 in which one side had 10 times or more resources.

As a result of his military history research, Arreguín-Toft discovered two fundamental principles of people’s war.

Principle #1: The Weaker Will Win

Over time the weaker adversary is winning more frequently and that since 1950, the weaker side has won more often than not. This trend will continue; the advantages of being weaker, smaller, nimbler are growing.

Principle #2: Innovation is a Force Multiplier

The second principle is the most important of all: the weaker adversary tends to win conflicts when they act innovatively. If the weaker refused to mimic the stronger adversary’s actions then they won 63% of the time. In essence, we innovate; we win.