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Australia’a Commodity Eulogy
Here in Australia, there’s been a lot of focus on whether the rest of the economy can pick up where the resourcesboom left off. But last Wednesday, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) seemed to put a stake in the heart of the Australian economy, drive it clean through, and then rub salt in it for good measure.
The value of committed resource investment projects has fallen 10% to $240 billion since BREE last surveyed the resources sector six months ago. Mind you, there are still 63 projects past the ‘feasibility’ stage that are now ‘committed’. And $240 billion is not a small amount of money.
But what you might find surprising is that BREE reckons by 2017, that number will fall to $70 billion, which would presumably include a lot fewer projects.
A lot of the projects planned during the boom will either be cancelled – 18 projects worth $150 billion were cancelled in a twelve-month period – or simply completed. For example, $30.3 billion worth of investment and construction was completed in the last six months.
In terms of national income, the boom from the investment spending has already peaked. From here on out, it’s production and commodity prices that count. And on that score, it’s probably not the quantity of projects that matters. It’s their quality. Take a look at the table below.
Read the rest of this article at The Daily Reckoning
