Global Air Pollution Disaster If Emissions Aren’t Dramatically Slashed, New Study Predicts

 

Writing in the EGU’s journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, scientists from Cyprus, Denmark, Germany, Italy and Saudi Arabia predict that by 2050, a fast approaching milestone a mere 40 years down the line, the average world citizen will experience similar air pollution to that of today’s average East Asian citizen.

Air pollution is a major health risk that is only set to get worse as industrial activity increases; and according to the World Health Organization (WHO), urban outdoor air pollution currently causes an estimated 1.3 million deaths every year worldwide.

The study was supported by several EU-funded projects: C8 (‘Consistent computation of the chemistry-cloud continuum and climate change in Cyprus’), which was funded by a EUR 2,196,000 European Research Council (ERC) Advanced Grant; CIRCE (‘Climate change and impact research: the Mediterranean environment’), which received a EUR 10,000,000 boost from the ‘Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems’ Thematic area of the Sixth Framework Programme (FP6); EDESIA (‘Extended distributed European infrastructure for supercomputing applications’), funded to the tune of EUR 7,000,000 under FP6′s ‘Research Infrastructures’ Thematic area; and EDESIA’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) successor: DEISA2 (‘Distributed European infrastructure for supercomputing applications 2′), supported by a EUR 10,237,000 grant under FP7′s ‘Research Infrastructures’ Theme.

The researchers studied the impact of man-made emissions on air quality if past emission trends continue and no additional climate change and air pollution reduction measures are implemented. They estimated air quality in 2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050 using an atmospheric chemistry model that uses a basic mathematical formulation to predict the meteorology and the chemical composition of the atmosphere.

Study co-author Greet Janssens-Maenhout from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Italy comments: ‘At present the post-Kyoto climate negotiations are progressing slowly, and it is unclear how air quality policies will develop globally. In regions with economic growth, it might be less effective to implement emission-reduction measures due to strong growth in activities in particular sectors; in countries suffering from the economic downturn, implementing expensive air-quality measures could prove difficult in coming years.’

The results show that in 2025 and 2050, if no action is taken, East Asia will be exposed to high levels of pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide. Northern India and the Arabian Gulf region, on the other hand, will suffer a marked increase in ozone levels.

The study also highlights that air pollution would significantly increase in Europe and North America, but to a much lesser extent than in Asia, due to the effect of mitigation policies that have been in place for over two decades.

The study is the first of its kind to include all five major air pollutants know to negatively impact human health: PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, ozone and carbon monoxide. The scientists considered pollutants released through human activity, as well as those occurring naturally such as desert dust, sea spray and volcanic emissions.

The international study concludes that ‘strong actions and further effective legislation’ are necessary to ‘avoid the drastic deterioration of air quality, which can have severe effects on human health’.

Lead author Andrea Pozzer, based at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany, says: ‘We show that further legislation to control and reduce man-made emissions is needed, in particular for eastern China and northern India, to avoid hot-spots of elevated air pollution.’

The researchers studied the impact of man-made emissions on air quality, assuming past emission trends continue and no additional climate change and air pollution reduction measures (beyond what is in place since 2005) are implemented. They point out that, while pessimistic, the global emissions trends indicate such continuation.

“At present the post-Kyoto climate negotiations are progressing slowly, and it is unclear how air quality policies will develop globally,” explains co-author Greet Janssens-Maenhout of the European Commission Joint Research Centre in Italy. “In regions with economic growth, it might be less effective to implement emission-reduction measures due to strong growth in activities in particular sectors; in countries suffering from the economic downturn, implementing expensive air-quality measures could prove difficult in coming years,” she adds.

“We show that further legislation to control and reduce man-made emissions is needed, in particular for eastern China and northern India, to avoid hot-spots of elevated air pollution,” says Pozzer. Combined with the fact that these are regions of high population density, elevated air pollution here would mean that air quality would worsen significantly for the average world citizen in 2050.

Pozzer and his colleagues estimated air quality in 2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050 using an atmospheric chemistry model. “The model uses basic mathematical formulation to predict the meteorology and the chemical composition of the atmosphere,” Pozzer explains. “In practice, it is a software used to forecast – or hindcast, for past years – the status of the atmosphere at specific times.”

The results show that in 2025 and 2050, under the business-as-usual scenario studied, East Asia will be exposed to high levels of pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) [2]. Northern India and the Arabian Gulf region, on the other hand, will suffer a marked increase in ozone levels.

The analysis now published is the first to include all five major air pollutants known to negatively impact human health: PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide. The scientists considered pollutants released through human activity, as well as those occurring naturally such as desert dust, sea spray, or volcanic emissions.

Taking all pollutants into account, eastern China, northern India, the Middle East, and North Africa are projected to have the world’s poorest air quality in the future. In the latter locations this is due to a combination of natural desert dust and man-induced ozone. The effect of anthropogenic pollution emissions are predicted to be most harmful in East and South Asia, where air pollution is projected to triple compared to current levels.

The study aimed to compare the influence of man-made emissions on air quality in different regions, and show how no-further legislation to reduce emissions can result in drastic deterioration of air quality worldwide compared to the present day situation

Contacts and sources:

Citation Pozzer, A., et al. ‘Effects of business-as-usual anthropogenic emissions on air quality’, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2012. doi:10.5194/acp-12-6915-2012