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Perceived shocking developments and actual disruption and world impacting developments
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This site has discussed the normal technology adoption cycle which takes years to decades for something new to scale up would normally provide some time for acclimation. People have coping mechanisms to prevent psychological shock and to help them prevent admitting that their world view was wrong.
People will also not bother to be precise about their claims and statements.
The moon landings were shocking to many people and then the effort to go to the moon was stopped. Quite a large number of people would then claim that the landings were faked. The lack of follow up also lets them dismiss space development as retro-futurism.
There are working flying cars and some are sold in special legal categories and a likely modest commercial success will come with the Terrafugia Transition. However, the small volume will let people dismiss this development. Even if flying cars had total units deployed of 500,000 this would not be considered the “promised future”. 500,000 would still be more than the current world market for small planes. The volumes would be compared against cars which have 1 billion deployed. They would also need to be used for regular day to day commuting to be perceived as approaching what people hoped for.
If DARPA was successful with the development of its “flying humvee” with some robotic flight capabilities and if there was development of pocket airports then that could bring about a revolution in flight. The pocket airports and short takeoff and highly fuel efficient light planes (especially with UAV robotic control) would enable a societally impacting usage of air taxis.
See more and subscribe to NextBigFuture at 2012-12-20 18:01:08 Source: http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/12/perceived-shocking-developments-and.html
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