The playing field has a natural tilt climate modelers won’t see

(Before It's News)

Twitter climate debate warrior ‘Ima Disbelievin‘ sent me this short article which is worth a post. It’s a followup to the Tony Thomas article a week or so back which covered the story about the American Physical Society APS reworking their position statement on climate change and global warming.

In the American Physical Science’s transcript of discussions relating to their upcoming revision of their position statement on Anthropogenic Climate Change, Dr. Collins states:

So, we build climate models. We assume when we construct those models that the net energy balance of the planet was identically zero or effectively zero at the start of industrialization.

My concern/question relates to:

1. We know that the energy balance of the planet was neither identically nor effectively zero at the start of industrialization.

2. We know that the globe had been warming to a certain number of degrees C/decade ever since the end of the little ice age.

3. I can find nowhere the assumption that natural climate change had stopped at whichever date is chosen as the assumed start of industrialization.

Given the above 3 points, why are the models constructed to explicitly exclude any natural component of warming as of the starting point of the run?

It would seem that this omission by itself would guarantee that the anthropogenic forcings needed to be input would of necessity be larger than required if the model actually included the natural forcings which were necessary pre-industry to produce the data confirmed historic temperatures, trend and energy balance at the start of the assumed industrialization contribution to the forcing.

Performing the calibration or verification runs should, it would seem, produce an end product which, at the start of the industrial era, produce an output which would include not just the temperature which matches data at that time but the same trend in magnitude and sign which match the trend known to exist at that time and the same energy imbalance known to exist.

It would seem that any model which did not produce this known energy imbalance at the start of industrialization would be understating the natural forcings by the amount necessary to produce said energy imbalance.

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