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Global warming likes its chicken fried
Brett Smith for redOrbit.com – @ParkstBrett
If you’ve turned on the TV lately, you probably know that chicken nuggets are popping up everywhere, and at falling prices.
So, what’s up with McDonald’s and Burger King engaging in an all-out, golden-fried war? Turns out it may have something to do with global warming.
Intense droughts across the Southwestern US have forced cattle ranchers to cull their herds, driving up the price of beef. Since chickens require much less water to raise than cattle, the poultry industry has actually gotten a boost from the lack of rain.
Good news, cows: This will probably continue
Add to that, a new study in the journal Science Advances has suggested that this could be the new normal – projecting an 80-percent chance of a 35-year superdrought hitting the Southwest and Midwest by the end of this century.
The current run of droughts has been going strong for a few years, and since 2010, Texas has lost about one-quarter of its cattle herd. Reuters recently reported that the total amount of US cattle actually hit a 63-year low in 2014 before bouncing back thanks to cheap feed prices and a spike in beef prices. That very spike probably pushed fast food chains into embracing the chicken in the first part of 2015.
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The jump in prices was partially driven by the fact that Americans have not slacked off in their demand for beef, even though the supply is starting to dwindle. Beef prices have risen by 17 percent over the last four years, while consumption has only slipped by 3 percent. Meanwhile, US chicken farmers are expected to increase production by more than 1 billion pounds in 2015, with wholesale prices expected to fall around 8 percent.
Seriously, let’s cut back on emissions
While the market is focused on short-term supply and demand, scientists are worried about much bigger decisions than those made in front of a drive-thru speaker.
If the current trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions stays on track, a massive drought will hit the Southwest and Midwest within the next 85 years. Researchers from Columbia, NASA and Cornell who conducted that study also found that if emissions are cut “middle of the road” targets, the percentage drops to between 60 and 70 percent, but only for the Midwest.
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“Even at the middle-of-the-road scenario, we see enough warming and drying to push us past the worst droughts experienced in the region since the medieval era,” study author and NASA scientist Benjamin Cook told National Geographic.
Cook was referring to the 12th century drought that decimated the Southwest and is thought to have played a role in the decline of the Anasazi people of the Colorado Plateau. The project drought for this century is expected to be worse.
“Even when selecting for the worst megadrought-dominated period, the 21st-century projections make the megadroughts seem like quaint walks through the Garden of Eden,” said study co-author Jason E. Smerdon of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
What that could mean for the cattle and poultry industries is anyone’s guess and something to think about the next time you’re dunking that crunchy strip of chicken in honey mustard sauce.
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Source: http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1113340037/global-warming-likes-its-chicken-fried-022415/
