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Worse Grid Down Scenario, 4 Months, 250 million dead
The following is comment and opinion from a reader, ‘TripodXL’, regarding the dire scenario of a long term wide spread power outage. This scenario is one of the few that I respect the most when it comes to ‘real’.
Given that modern society is entirely dependent upon electricity to the point of not having ‘manual’ backup systems, and given that there are a number of events that could eliminate that electricity – potentially for a substantial period of time, and given that supply chains of all sorts are of very short duration and extremely interdependent, this should inspire the thinking person to stock up and think this one through…
In a true SHTF that involves loss of the grid even for say 2-3 months, the death toll would be staggering.
The fact that Just In Time delivery of all inventory at EVERY store in the nation guarantees millions will die. The average grocery store has 3 days of inventory, max. The average home has 3-7 days supply of food. All reorders in national and regional grocery chains is all done by computers over phone lines. There isn’t even a mechanism in place to do manual ordering, it doesn’t exist!!!
I live not too far from two large box grocery store distribution centers and one regional distribution center. I would just about bet the county commission and the sheriff’s dept will lock them down. All orders to food producers will not be made. Most of the food in the modern part of the world will ROT.
So with the numbers quoted above most everyone in the city will be out of food in 10-14 days and water before that. Say a CME hit the earth and there isn’t 2% of the world’s lights on and those only on generators that need fuel, ordered by computers. If you live in the metro area post 2 weeks TSHTF and you do not have an impregnable concrete bunker or are well hidden in some odd magical place that won’t be found and you have food, guess what? Hope you don’t have any daughters and your wife is really ugly. You, you’re gonna be a slave or dead and your son will be somebody’s little puppy or a slave.
If this came to pass it isn’t just wait till they get the lights back on. The lights wouldn’t be on for years in the cities and decades outside the cities. My conservative estimate is that 80-100 million people will die in the U.S. by the end of 60 days having starved or dehydrated to death or was murdered.
The thing about it is that people will wait until it is too late to bug out cuz the gubment is gonna fix it. Until they come to the oh shite moment that they realize that the cavalry isn’t coming. When they do try to bug out it will probably be too late. They will be half starved to death, subject to now rampant disease and fetid rotting bodies and hordes of gangs in as bad shape as they are except they are going to kill them and take what little they might have. That’s also why I think that roving bands from the cities will be scarce outside of metro areas.
By the end of 3-4 months I think 150 to 250 million people could be dead and that’s just here. Those that manage to feed themselves and survive and come out to the country to look for easy pickens will not live too long. If we wind up with 60-80 million left, which would be the population level of 1880-1910, we would have a lot of room to grow, a new point of view and perhaps we could get it right this time. Who knows?
As an idealist and a romantic patriot I would like to think that the U.S.A. would survive. Unless there is some dynamic true leadership at the helm and lot of luck, I’m not sure how it will turn out. My grandaddy told me one time some gubment man came around Flora, Mississippi in the late 30s and asked how much better things were getting from the depression years and grandaddy said “what depression”? There will be areas even in our country like that, some continents, Africa, a lot of the South American interior, Siberia, rural China. India will suck as they are actually a modern country. Hopefully we will not repeat the early and mid 20th centuries in the coming decades.
Other useful resources:
Blackout USA (EMP survival and preparedness guide)
Backyard Innovator (All Year Round Source Of Fresh Meat,Vegetables And Clean Drinking Water)
Conquering the coming collapse (Financial advice and preparedness )
Liberty Generator (Easy DIY to build your own off-grid free energy device)
Backyard Liberty (Easy and cheap DIY Aquaponic system to grow your organic and living food bank)
Bullet Proof Home (A Prepper’s Guide in Safeguarding a Home )
Family Self Defense (Best Self Defense Strategies For You And Your Family)
Sold Out After Crisis (Best 37 Items To Hoard For A Long Term Crisis)
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I just joined and saw your post.I don’t understand.
What is that about?
This is the type of scenario that my family has been most concerned about. We have a well and would have no water without power. We got an Emergency Well Tube and now have the ability to draw water from our well without pulling the pump when there is no power. Check it out at http://www.emergencywelltube.com
Got part of your answer right here. Been working on this for a while. Just now releasing for sale. http://www.gordonrocketcompany.com
The above Rocket Stove note is me David Gordon. Had to renew my account.
The US military is the biggest enemy to Americans!
http://theusmarinesrape.com/FaceBook.html
I don’t understand how anyone survives, period, when thousands of commercial jets fall out of the sky causing fires AND smoke with fire trucks unable to respond to them. In addition, lots of people will get drunk and start fires with candles due to carelessness. Once again, no fire trucks will be able to respond.
It doesn’t matter how much prepper stuff you have, you’ll still die. You might be the last ones to die, but no one will be exempt. Whatever sort of bug out plan a person/family has, when the forest is on fire, those plans can go out the window.
Good luck getting to your bug out home. Roads and intersections will be blocked by dead cars and trucks. Even with an offroad vehicle, unless you’re already living out in the country, the sidewalks with telephone poles and signs are likely to make escape a no-go.
I have been saying the exact same thing for years and write about it all in great detail. Many other related subjects as well with much more backup data and underlying dynamics. All @ http://www.downtoearththinking.com and the absolute best way to make your own potable water on the planet , bar none . Simple and very cost effective and many other health and medicinal uses as well.
There are many outlier events that can cause havoc for all of us. although some sort of EMP/CME is a good possibility. Especially with possible terrorist activity present today and or a cyber attack that could do the same thing ? Most people are quite consumed in the many illusions !