Study shows we should contact aliens in 1,500 years
According to the Fermi Paradox, we should have made contact with an alien civilization by now, but a new study based on a 500-year-old principle has found that it’s more likely we’ll have been in touch with extra-terrestrials within the next 1,500 years.
Set to be presented at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society later this month, the new study applies Copernicus’ Mediocrity Principle, and considers the size of the Milky Way, the time it takes radio signals to travel through space and the “averageness” of humans to conclude that we have another 1,500 years to see if we are alone in our galaxy.
“It’s possible to hear any time at all, but it becomes likely we will have heard around 1,500 years from now,” study author Evan Solomonides, from Cornell Uiversity, said in a press statement. “Until then, it is possible that we appear to be alone—even if we are not. But if we stop listening or looking, we may miss the signals. So we should keep looking.”
Setting a time limit on the Fermi Paradox
Almost 50 years ago, physicist Enrico Fermi said despite the size of the Milky Way, there has been more than enough time for aliens to contact us. Our radio broadcasts have been spreading out from Earth over the last 80 years and have reached more than 8,500 stars and nearly 3,600 Earth-like planets. And yet, Solomonides noted that this only represents 0.125 percent of the planar area of the Milky Way.
“Even our mundane, typical spiral galaxy – not exceptionally large compared to other galaxies – is vast beyond imagination,” Solomonides said. “Those numbers are what make the Fermi Paradox so counterintuitive. We have reached so many stars and planets, surely we should have reached somebody by now, and in turn been reached … this demonstrates why we appear to be alone.”
Incorporating the equations for the Fermi Paradox and the Mediocrity Principle, which suggests there’s nothing special about Earth, the study authors found that we might hear from an alien civilization when around 50 percent of the Milky Way has been signaled, or in around 1,500 years.
“This is not to say that we must be reached by then or else we are, in fact, alone. We simply claim that it is somewhat unlikely that we will not hear anything before that time,” Solomonides said.
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