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Old Faces, New Places: How Should Jason Vargas Be Viewed Pitching For The Angels?
Over the past few seasons Jason Vargas has been a productive pitcher. He has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in two of the past three seasons and has had a WHIP of 1.33 or better each of the past few years. No one was going to mistake him for a fantasy superstar, especially with a career K/9 of 5.75, but there was vale there.
However, now that he is heading to the Angels you have to star to wonder if the value is going to remain. As it is he was capped by his strikeout rate, but when you look at things the majority of the good came while pitching in Safeco Field. Just look at the home/road splits over the past four seasons:
- 2009 – 2.77 // 6.43
- 2010 – 2.86 // 4.85
- 2011 – 4.56 // 3.79
- 2012 – 2.74 // 4.78
Clearly 2011 was the exception to the rule and, while it shows success is possible outside of Seattle, it is also impossible to depend on.
Looking at 2012, it wasn’t that he was particularly unlucky on the road. In fact, he was hit harder at home (20.3% line drive ate), than he was on the road (18.6% line drive rate). His road metrics, with a .264 BABIP and 76.9% strand rate, are both believable (in fact, you could easily argue that his home numbers of .242 and 80.8% are both unrealistic).
The control has good on the road, with a 2.50 BB/9, and the strikeout rate was believable, with a 5.46 K/9. The major difference was the long ball, and it’s a major issue. Even if you don’t want to believe the increased fly ball rate on the road (45.5% vs. 33.8%), though given his career fly ball rate of 44.6% it is hard not to, you can’t argue that he was simply more susceptible to home runs away from home.
Last season he posted a 14.8% fly ball on the road vs. a 9.2% mark on the road. For his career, it is 11.0% on the road vs. 6.9% at home.
How big of an impact is the move going to have? That’s the major question at this point. In 2012 Safeco Field allowed 0.583 HR per game. His new home, Angel Stadium of Anaheim, allowed 0.759. In 2011 Safeco actually yielded 1.037 while Angel Stadium was at 0.789.
With the fences being adjusted in Seattle we likely would’ve been having this same conversation. However, the difference is that Vargas now goes to a stadium that is still favorable in regards to home runs (at least it has been over the past two seasons) but now has a significantly better offense behind him. In other words, this move is actually a big win.
Obviously, Vargas still has his warts. He isn’t going to be a great option thanks to the limited strikeout ability, but his value likely increases slightly due to the move. I still wouldn’t plan on depending on him every start, but as a matchup/streamer there’s a lot to like. Stashing him at the end of your roster and plugging him in (as long as you have ample strikeouts eslewhere), is a solid move.
What are your thoughts of Vargas and his move to LA? Do you think he’ll have fantasy appeal? Why or why not?
(Stats come courtesy of Fangraphs, Park Factors courtesy of ESPN)
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2012-12-23 04:31:39
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