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Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Should Adam LaRoche’s Second Half Struggles Cause Us To Avoid Him?
by Ray Kuhn
On the surface, Adam LaRoche’s 2014 season didn’t look that much different from either of the past two. Of course the most recent numbers are the ones that are freshest in our mind and for LaRoche that was a .218 batting average in 266 at bats in the second half.
Regardless of his struggles to end the season, he is often an overlooked option come draft day. In mixed leagues this does not mean LaRoche should be a starting first baseman, I currently have him at 23 in my personal rankings, but for a minimal investment there is a value as a CI or Utility option.
When you buy him you are doing so for the power numbers, not the batting average. Over the past three seasons there has been fluctuations in that department (.271, .237 and .259), while he has continued to own his power skills.
If you look deeper, last year was the tale of two halves as he posted a batting average of .307 in the first half. Luck was involved on both ends as the first baseman had hit percentages of 35% and 23%, so each extreme was covered. However, he showed improvement in his contact rate, 78%, and that remained constant all season.
To truly evaluate LaRoche from a batting average perspective you almost have to ignore the splits and just look at his .266 xBA and the .259 that he finished the season with. If you use that as a baseline when projecting his average, you will be in good shape.
Also, to his credit, his power has remained in tact. Last season he hit 26 HR to go along with 92 RBI. His Expected Power Index (162) compared to his Power Index (126) says that perhaps even more HR were left on the table.
We must also note that LaRoche is moving to a favorable home park after signing with the Chicago White Sox. Perhaps the ability to DH will help keep him healthy, but there is also an adjustment factor involved. Even if he does miss time, you are still getting 20-25 home runs and then you must factor in the replacement level value as well.
Just as I am not buying LaRoche based on his .307 first half average, I am not selling after his .218 second half average.
LaRoche is not an exciting option, but you know what you are getting.
Sources: Baseball HQ
Make sure to check out all of our 2015 rankings:
- Catchers
- First Basemen
- Second Basemen
- Third Basemen
- Shortstops
- Outfielders: 1-20 | 21-40
- Starting Pitchers: 1-20 | 21-40
- Relief Pitchers
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Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=25159
