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From Poker to Fantasy Sports: How Skill in Both Can Yield Major Profits
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The rise of Fantasy Sports, or Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) following the industry’s evolution, has been almost unprecedented over the last two years. From a budding enterprise to a booming industry, many of the major DFS sites now offer fantasy sports competitions for baseball, football, hockey and mixed martial arts (the UFC).
Today, thousands of people ante-up at the largest fantasy sports sites every week and that has allowed operators such as DraftKings, DraftDay and FanDuel to be capable of creating prize pools worth in excess of $1 million. These impressive cash prizes have fuelled a major boom in the industry and the market leaders are now approaching company values close to $1 billion thanks to deals with organizations such as the NFL and the NBA.
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From Poker to Fantasy Sports
With such large amounts of money on the line and at least some scope for implementing a winning strategy, a number of poker players have gradually found themselves migrating over to the world of DFS. Whether it is in the role of company founder, employee or player, DFS has attracted some of the finest poker minds over the last few years.
Arguably the most prominent players to crossover from poker to DFS are Andrew Wiggins and Taylor Caby. The former high stakes online cash game players were two of the original founders of poker training site, CardRunners. After successfully running CardRunners for a number of years, the two entrepreneurs spotted an opportunity in the fantasy sports market. Using their experience and cash to help set-up DraftDay in 2011, the two poker experts are now at the helm of one of the leading operators in the industry.
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Negreanu et al Support DFS
This early trickle of poker-to-DFS converts soon turned into a wave as more players soon discovered that their skills on the felt could help them make money in fantasy land. Jonathan Aguiar was another early fan of DFS and quickly realized his tournament skills gave him an edge in the sports arena. As well as winning a WSOP bracelet in Europe, Aguiar has earned more than $1.5 million playing poker in events across the world.
However, after turning his attention to DFS, Aguiar quickly made $30,000 in his first two months and then decided to join DraftKings as a full-time employee. Having seen the success of Aguiar, many of the poker world’s top players have now joined the action, including PokerStars’ standout pro, Daniel Negreanu. Aside from testing his skills across a range of games, Negreanu has been vocal in his support of the industry. Commenting on the fears that the rise of DFS could lead to match fixing, Negreanu said that it is “less likely” that match fixing would occur in places such as Las Vegas if people are taking part in DFS.
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Why Poker Pros Make Strong DFS Players
If poker players make great DFS players, what crossover skills can the former use for success in the latter?
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Study the Stats
One of the key skills the so-called “fantasy sports wizard” Cory Albertson, who is also a skilled poker player, has used to make more than $100,000 is statistical analysis. Like a high-level poker player assessing their opponent’s pre-flop raise frequency or three-bet ratios, a DFS pro will consider the vital statistics of each player and then come to a conclusion based on this analysis. During his interview with the Wall Street Journal, Albertson called this a painstaking, almost “menial” process but one that is necessary for success.
For example, to become a fantasy sports winner in baseball you would need to review the top ranking first basemen or the leading catchers of the season to get an insight in which players are worth speculating on.
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Take a Holistic Approach
Another skill poker pros and DFS players share in their quest for cash is an understanding of long-term expectation. Otherwise known as expected value (EV), DFS and poker pros know that every stat, every attribute and every move needs to be considered in overall terms. A basketball player on a heater may have scored 40 points in three games, but that does not mean he is a natural pick in a DFS contest.
Those three performances need to be weighed in the context of the season as a whole. Similarly, a tournament player may win three tournaments in a row before hitting a stretch of ten events without cashing. Because this is possible, all poker players will look at their overall ROI (Return On Investment) to determine whether they are profitable or not. ROI takes into account the number of tournaments a player has played, the total cost of their buy-ins and the amount they have won to deliver an overall win rate.
Assessing this sort of information is also something a DFS pro will do. The basketball player’s 40 points in three games is great, but if they then only manage a further ten points in the next 15 games, then their overall ROI will not be as impressive as that three-game run would lead some to believe.
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Money Management is Key
The final part of a DFS pro’s arsenal which skilled poker players will be familiar with is bankroll management. Knowing how much to bet and how to distribute this based on the expectation of each proposition is a skill that must be mastered if success is to be had in both worlds. Albertson has proved that money management is crucial for the aspiring DFS pro by turning a $200 investment into more than $100,000. Starting off small and investing his bankroll wisely, Albertson has shown that it’s more than possible to make a living playing DFS if you are disciplined.
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Time + Dedication = Profit
Taking the time to analyze stats, both in a vacuum and in a holistic sense, managing your money and having the focus to play DFS as much as possible are the foundations of success in the industry. Although there is always going to be an element of luck involved in whether or not you win a particular contest (namely because sport can often throw up unexpected scenarios), it is possible to nullify the effects of this over time. Consistently making +EV moves (moves that are statistically more likely to succeed than fail) will result in a long-term profit.
Scooping a single jackpot is something any DFS player can do, but earning a consistent amount of money is something only those with dedication can do. Albertson, and many others like him, have shown that it is possible to make a living playing fantasy sports, but only if you are willing to put in the time and effort to do things properly.
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Fantasy football, baseball, and basketball analysis
Source: http://lesterslegends.com/poker-fantasy-sports-skill-yield-major-profits/
