| Story Views | |
| Now: | |
| Last Hour: | |
| Last 24 Hours: | |
| Total: | |
Finishing Strong: Analyzing Two Young Pitchers Who Finished 2016 Strong And What That Means For 2017
by Will Overton
We already know starting pitching is incredibly deep, and when we get to the later rounds and you’re looking for that value steal, the choices are plenty. So what are some of the things to look for when trying to find someone to grab late for pitching? One of the things I look for, especially with young pitchers, is how they finished the previous season.
I like to look at young arms numbers for the month of September, or August and September, and see who finished strong. This can be an indication that a young guy is finding his way in the big leagues and could transfer the late success to a full year of strong pitching.
Obviously not all strong finishes lead to big years though and so we are going to take a look at a couple of young pitchers who closed out the year strong in 2016 and whether we should expect big things in 2017:
Jerad Eickhoff – Philadelphia Phillies: The 2016 season was a big up and down for Jerad Eickhoff, but in the end he exceeded expectations overall and finished very strong in September. Let’s look at the numbers he posted in the month of September:
5 GS, 29.2 IP, 2.73 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 25 K, 3 BB, 2 W
Eickhoff’s control was great all season, but it was exceptional in the month of September. This was Eickhoff’s first year in the majors and it certainly does seem as though he put it all together in the end. That said, I am still struggling to buy in on him…
The control is great, but the upside is somewhat limited in terms of strikeouts. Eickhoff isn’t a power pitcher by any means, and while he has nice movement pitches, Eickhoff likes to keep the ball over the plate and pitch to contact. A K/9 rate in the seven’s is respectable, but it’s not anything special and I don’t know how much upside there is.
The other big concern with Eickhoff is that he is prone to give up fly balls, and will see the ball leave the yard a decent amount. Playing in Philadelphia won’t help this problem any either. I think Eickhoff has the stuff to stick around as a starter in the league, but I don’t know that he has the upside potential you are looking for late in standard league drafts.
Daniel Norris – Detroit Tigers: Injuries and a crowded rotation in Detroit made it difficult for Daniel Norris to get much momentum going last season until the last two months where he was pitching regularly for the big league club. In August – September Norris had the following numbers:
10 GS, 56.1 IP, 3.04 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 55 K, 19 BB, 3 W
There are definitely some concerns in there, most notably the walks and the high WHIP, but when we look at numbers we see some trends that are favorable. Norris got a little bit lucky in August, but in September he turned it up a notch with 38 K’s and just 8 BB in 29.2 IP.
Over the last couple months Norris showed a higher velocity rate, coming in at 94 with his fastball in this span of time. He also was getting more swings and misses and showing more effectiveness with his slider. We also saw Norris start getting more groundballs instead of an excessive amount of fly balls that led to a propensity for the long ball.
Norris has some concerns, but there are definite signs of a guy turning a corner and improving as a pitcher. Norris has big time strikeout upside as witnessed in his last five starts of last season, and if he can maintain a BB/9 rate of around 3.0 he should provide a whole lot of value for fantasy players in all formats.
Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=31977
