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10 Bold Predictions For 2017: Trea Turner, Nelson Cruz & More
by Simon Jones
It’s that time of year when people make some bold (or extremely foolhardy) forecasts for 2017. These predictions are out-there, so please don’t base your draft strategy around them. Some I believe are fairly likely (even if the rest of the fantasy community doesn’t), some pretty unlikely and some quite implausible – but all definitely possible and worth watching. I’ll be doing a midseason review and then pulling the whole thing apart at the end of the year.
1) Kendrys Morales hits more HRs than Edwin Encarnacion
The Blue Jays took a lot of abuse this offseason for apparently misreading the free-agent market, resulting in them letting fan favorite Encarnacion slip through their fingers and instead signing Morales as an overpay. I won’t argue with the fact that the Jays could have played the market better, but I don’t feel the outcome will be too disastrous. Morales is a good hitter, but his fantasy stock seems diminished by previously hitting in a park that held back his power stroke along with having the dreaded DH next to his name. I still think Encarnacion will hit well in Cleveland, but I believe that the Rogers Centre is tailor made for Morales. I also think he gets more AB in NL parks, as Toronto doesn’t have great options at 1B to keep him off the field. He had 30 HR last season and I’m betting on a jump forward again in 2017.
2) Wilson Ramos is a Top 10 fantasy catcher in 2017
There are three foundations to this prediction. First, I believe in the 2016 version of Ramos, and make no mistake he had an excellent year. The .307/.354/.496 slash line made him one of the few catchers you could have used at another position. Secondly, the Rays have a DH position and no great option to fill it. I don’t think they’ll rush Ramos back, but I see him getting regular AB from mid-May with the Rays, where if he was with an NL team (or a team with an outstanding DH) we may not have seen him until after the All-Star Break. Thirdly, I think you can make a case that there’s some really good talent at catcher this year but it thins out dramatically at the tail of the Top 10. I have no great confidence that a full season of others will be better than a three-quarter season of Ramos.
3) Holliday, Carter, Bird and Judge hit 100 HR between them
The match of Yankee Stadium and these four seems too good to be true. The detractors point to an overcrowded roster and the concern about playing time, but I feel that whoever the Yankees choose the ball will be clearing the fences. I’ll start with Bird. As we know, injury struck before 2016 could even begin, but his brief stint in 2015 was tantalizing. He is crushing the ball this spring, which in isolation doesn’t mean a thing, except that it shows that the shoulder is healed and the power is back. If he plays to his potential then the Steamer prediction of 23 HR will seem laughably low.
In the event that Bird doesn’t hit well, then the Yankees have Chris Carter. Carter hasn’t looked great this spring, and doesn’t bring much to the table… other than power. Even if he only gets 250/300 AB, it’s still likely we see 15+ HRs If he gets 500+ AB then he should get 30+ HR.
I think Yankee Stadium will also play well for Holliday. Getting to DH most days could mean he can get 500+ AB again after the last couple of disrupted seasons, and if that happens the he should be a lock for 20+ HR.
Of course, whether the prediction really flies or face-plants depends very much on Aaron Judge. The power potential is immense, but he looked horribly overmatched in his brief stint in the Majors last year with a 44% K-rate. In Spring Training he has looked more comfortable at the plate, not just compared to his performance in the Major, but also last spring. It is only spring training, but the signs are more positive.
Steamer are predicting 81 HR between the 4 players.
4) Trea Turner isn’t a Top 50 fantasy player or a top 3 Nationals player
It’s not that I’m hugely down on Turner, I just don’t trust really small sample sizes. I don’t trust Gary Sanchez either, but at least he isn’t costing you more than a Top 50 pick. The hype has ballooned so far with Turner that he’s now costing on average a Top 10 NFBC pick, and at least a Top 20 pick elsewhere. That to me is a crazy price. Even if he performs well the profit you make on that pick is small, but there is a huge unknown coupled with that price as the league adjusts to him in his first full season. As regards the Nationals, I could see any of four players providing a significantly better return than Turner – namely Max Scherzer, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg and Daniel Murphy (more about him in a moment).
5) Daniel Murphy exceeds his 2016 fantasy line
Somewhere in mid-2015, Murphy found his power stroke. More importantly, he didn’t have to sell-out his approach or the rest of his skillset to make it happen. Coming into 2016 there were very few believers that the 2015 conclusion could be repeated. Here we now stand a year later, with Murphy having produced a full season’s worth of stellar numbers and still all the projections are building in significant regression. Steamer In particular seems to be incredibly down on him – 11 less home runs, 15 less runs, 29 less RBI and dropping 113 points of slugging. When I looked a bit deeper, Murphy’s power seems to be supported by the Statcast data. Forecasting with any certainty that he replicates 2016 is a stretch (but these are BOLD predictions), however I do feel the regression risk is severely overplayed.
6) Nelson Cruz returns better fantasy numbers than at least 5 players ranked above him
First I’ll put it out there… I’m not a fan of Cruz, and I struggle to pull for anyone tainted with PEDs. However the numbers are hard to ignore. The move to Seattle was supposed to kill his power, but I think it’s safe to lay that one to rest. The HR/FB rates are huge, and do bear some risk of a drop, but the big shadow hanging over Cruz is age. However, I’m backing him to keep things going for at least another year. Some may consider the ADP relatively expensive, but that factors in his age. He is currently the 10th or 11th outfielder coming off the board, and I can easily see him out performing several players ranked above him. I won’t go as far to say he’ll be a Top 5 OF, as there’s bound to be one or two who emerge from the pack behind him with a full breakout season.
7) Yu Darvish wins the AL Cy Young
Not much to say here. The peripherals are all in place and, the innings limits should be off, so this all rides on his health. I’m pretty underwhelmed with many of the top AL pitchers and I certainly don’t see either of the Top 2 contenders from 2016 replicating that achievement (more of that below). I only see serious competition from Corey Kluber and Chris Sale this year.
8) Justin Verlander is not a Top 20 fantasy SP
Verlander’s second half was one of the feel-good baseball stories of 2016. Very little is sadder than watching the steady decline of a once dominant pitcher into mediocrity, or even humiliation. That’s why it was so good the find Verlander up there competing for the Cy Young after a couple of years where it appeared he was on the way out. The first half showed a rebound in his K%, and the results followed after the All-Star Break with a further spike in K% and his ERA plummeting. I’d be happy to be proved wrong, but I can’t see a repeat. The BABIP and LOB% were both unsustainable in the last few months and I fear that anything less than 100% health will have a massive impact.
9) Mike Moustakas is a Top 12 3B in 2017
Moustakas seems to be flying under the radar this draft season, with an ADP in excess of 200 generally making him being taken in the 20s amongst third basemen. It seems that his lost 2016 means many owners have forgotten about him, and others don’t buy into the 2015 breakout that he had. Assuming that the knee is completely healed, then I can see him building into the season and showing us that those 2015 numbers are for real. I think he’s a real low-risk pick where he’s going in drafts, especially with a potential rebound in BABIP, which was bizarrely low in 2014 and again in the small sample from last year.
10) Saves are spread more thinly than ever before
In the past 7 years the relievers with 15+ saves has remained pretty constant, ranging between 30 and 33. In light of the 2016 playoffs, and the way that the top relievers were used, I think the 2017 season will see a culture change in how games are saved. Those pitchers are likely to be used more in high-leverage situations rather than strictly 9th inning, so I see potential for a lot of other pitchers to get saves. I’ll be bold and suggest we actually see 40 pitchers with 15+ saves this year.
And one bonus trading specific personal prediction. I’ll complete 20 trades in at least one of my leagues, and have at least one trade completed between the drafts/auctions on March 25/26 and Opening Day.
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Make sure to check out our 2017 Rankings:
|
Position
|
Standard League
|
OBP League
|
|---|---|---|
| Catcher | 03/20/17 | 02/28/17 |
| First Base | 01/16/17 | 03/07/17 |
| Second Base | 03/22/17 | 03/09/17 |
| Third Base | 02/06/17 | 03/12/17 |
| Shortstop | 02/13/17 | 03/15/17 |
| Outfield | #1-20 |03/16/17
#21-40 |03/16/17 |
03/19/17 |
| Starting Pitcher | #1-20 |02/27/17
#21-40 |03/02/17 |
– |
| Relief Pitcher | 01/02/17 | – |
Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=32406
