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Future Trend: “Peak Car” & The Rise Of The Bicycle
Its Friday and I'm pulling out my metaphorical crystal gazing ball (I had a real one once, but the Greys stole it, and those babies are expensive, so color me disgruntled…) to look at what is coming towards us on the timeline.
There are some dark times ahead for us all, I think most people who've been paying attention are beginning to pick up on that. So a forum for warnings of specific things is a part of what will happen on this blog on most Fridays. However! Humans are also amazingly adaptable and people ARE beginning to make changes to their lifestyle as a result of facing increasing poverty. Not all the changes are bad. Some are very healthy and positive in many ways.
I think we've all seen the truism of this saying (which I just made up, but it should be a saying): “Convenience can kill you.”
Oh sure, it kills you softly (in layers of fat) and slowly, and its so easy that the temptation to not pursue a harder way of doing things is nearly unbeatable. Convenience in our culture comes in the form of fossil fuel. As we've hit Peak Oil and are sliding down the other side of that (even with all that tar sands and fracking and shale oil our economy is still on shaky ground…) cheap fossil fuel becoming ever less cheap over time is creating a 'natural consequence'.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have hit “Peak Car.”
From Canada's Globe and Mail:
www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/are-we-reaching-peak-car/article4182676/
“The most detailed picture of the trend comes from the United States, where the distance driven by Americans per capita each year flatlined at the turn of the century and has been dropping for six years. By last spring, Americans were driving the same distance as they had in 1998.
The data are similar in Europe, Australia and Japan…
If developed countries are reaching “peak car,” as some transportation experts are calling it, it's not just a product of high unemployment or skyrocketing fuel prices, as the pattern began to show up years before the 2008 financial crisis.“
Its not out of guilt or just because the economy has sucked, either, the article claims.
“The rebound in urban-center residential growth over the past 20 years has reduced the need to drive, as many people have moved back within reach of city transit systems or even within walking distance from their jobs. Meanwhile, telecommuting, social media and online shopping have all cut back on the need for people to go anywhere outside the house at all.
Demographics also have an important impact. The two largest current cohorts are aging baby boomers and their young-adult children, known as Generation Y. The youngest of these Millennials are currently in their mid-teens, just the age when they should be getting their driver's licenses.
But U.S. transportation data show that many of them are putting off that long-cherished rite of passage well into their 20s.
In fact, they're more likely than any previous generation in the automotive age never to learn to drive at all. It's a choice that may feed into their elders' suspicion that this is a group that stubbornly holds on to its adolescence rather than accommodate itself to adulthood, but is also just a mark of when they came of age. To them, cars are “an older-generation technology,” says Tara Mahoney, 28, of Burnaby, B.C.“
Naturally, retiring baby-boomers don't drive as much either when they no longer work or work shorter hours. The loss of full-time employment and rise of part-time has a similar effect on driving.
The Generation Y or Millennials not participating in car culture is the most telling of all these trends, however. Is it the economy sucking at the beginning of their adult life? Or more than that? Well, its a mixture of reasons…
From The Atlantic, March 2012:
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/why-dont-young-americans-buy-cars/255001/
“Kids these days. They don't get married. They don't buy homes. And, much to the dismay of the world's auto makers, they apparently don't feel a deep and abiding urge to own a car.
This week, the New York Times pulled back the curtain on General Motors' recent, slightly bewildered efforts to connect with the Millennials — that giant generational cohort born in the 1980s and 1990s whose growing consumer power is reshaping the way corporate America markets its wares. Unfortunately for car companies, today's teens and twenty-somethings don't seem all that interested in buying a set of wheels. They're not even particularly keen on driving.“
After mentioning how car makers are all upset about this, the article goes on to say:
“The Millennials have become notorious for delaying, or entirely skipping, the traditional markers of adulthood. But as my colleague Derek Thompson has argued, that's largely because the economic milieu that shaped their parents' and and grandparents' lives has disappeared. How can you buy a home when you're underemployed and saddled with student debt? Why would you want to after the horror of the collapsing housing bubble? And why would a 25-year-old woman get married when so many of the men she knows are out of work, while she's financially independent?
Collectively, the Millennials still have a tremendous amount of spending money. But although they may have been synonymous with youth culture way back in the 20th century, cars are extremely adult investments — exactly the type twenty-somethings tend to shy from now. Even a bottom-tier Kia Sedan will run you $12,000, not counting the monthly cost of insurance, repairs, and filling up on $3.90-a-gallon gasoline. If there are reasonable, nearby alternatives to owning — say, paying for a Zip Car membership, or taking the subway — why commit to the expense?
Of course, Millennials are more likely than past generations to live in an urban community, and this may be part of what terrifies car markers. About 32 percent reside in cities, somewhat higher than the proportion of Generation X'ers or Baby Boomers who did when they were the same age, according to a 2009 Pew Research Center report. But as the Wall Street Journal reports, surveys have found that 88 percent want to live in an urban environment. When they're forced to settle down in a suburb, they prefer communities like Bethesda, Maryland, or Arlington, Virginia, which feature plenty of walking distance restaurants, retail, and public transportation to nearby Washington, DC.
If the Millennials truly become the peripatetic generation, walking to the office, the bus stop, or the corner store, it could mean a longterm dent in car sales. It's doubly problematic if they choose to raise children in the city. Growing up in the 'burbs was part of the reason driving was so central to Baby Boomers' lives. Car keys meant freedom. To city dwellers, they mean struggling to find an empty parking spot.“
Concurrent with the fall of the Once Great and Honorable Automobile comes another trend: the rise of the bicycle! Human powered transportation that has long been popular in urban areas around the globe for over a century.
From Transition Voice, 7 Reasons Biking Is For Everyone:
transitionvoice.com/2012/11/seven-reasons-bikes-are-for-everyone-not-just-cyclists/
Worth a read!! Some reasons cited:
~ That commutes are killers, almost literally, for people sick of being stuck in a car battling traffic day after day
~ Bikes are being increasingly manufactured that are upright (not racing-bike handle bars) useful, and comfortable
~ Bike-friendly cities (like Portland, Oregon!) attract the types of people that cities want for workers and citizenship
~ Time to exercise is hard to find, and biking combines transportation with exercise very conveniently
~ Biking encourages safety, livability, and beauty in an area because people are in and see things at a level they miss from cars.
Clueless or careless cyclists can be a road-hazard to themselves and cars, agreed– but overall, roads become safer and nicer when they cater to bikes and individually, they save a great deal of money and promote healthy exercise. What's not to like?
Transition-wise or Prep-wise, a bicycle is an excellent alternative when gas is too expensive or unavailable. Recently, after hurricane Sandy caused great chaos due to blocked streets and fuel shortages– people with bicycles were not only in much better shape, they became crucial to helping their neighbors in the aftermath. Even city workers were seen on bikes trying to get to various areas to check them out.
Bottom line– BUY A BICYCLE! A sturdy, wide-wheeled (with good traction), upright, comfortable bicycle– able to be hooked up to baskets or mini-trailers for transporting goods. Even if you're not at a point where you'll be using it regularly yet, the investment will pay off. Those in the know suggest avoiding the cheap, big box store varieties and spend a little money on something that will last a while and buy a book on cycle maintenance while you're at it. I suggest that taking money now can save you later when it may be harder to get the money together for such a purchase.
(Yes, I'm getting one too. Probably next spring.)
2012-12-08 03:47:40
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