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Letter Re: Anticipated Refugees Flows in a Grid Down Collapse
Mr. Rawles,
I’m currently trying to do a cogent analysis of the lower 48 and where my optimum safety location/region might be. I’ve read your articles on the great redoubt, rankings and ratings etc… I can respect your criteria and agree with most of it. The question that I’m pondering however, is that in a serious SHTF scenario, how will mass migrations occur. The “head for the hills” mentality will motivate millions to escape die off zones desperately seeking life’s basics. I agree that in a scenario of seriously “grid down”, a great many Americans will die. In contrast to your “Great American Redoubt” however, I would posit the following;
1. Logistically the “Redoubt” is challenged. From a foraging standpoint, there are precious few distribution points, raw materials or other commodities stockpiled. 2., The population density, while generally fewer than 50 people per sq. mile, will suffer from a lack of abundant skill sets in “post event industrialization”. 3. While agriculturally strong, the Redoubt lacks basic transportation infrastructure to economically drive it in a post event scenario. Primarily a sustenance existence with localized bartering.
As an assumption, mass migrations will occur primarily from urban to rural, I’m thinking that most folks will look to their neighboring “mountains” as eden. Meaning that most folks in New England would probably be inclined to migrate to Vermont or Maine. (The nearest “perceived sanctuary”.) Folks in the mid-Atlantic will hit the Blue Ridge or middle Appalachia–south eastern to Georgia/Alabama Appalachia. I realize what I’m speculating is just that but the underlying psychology of terrified sheeple seeking quick gratification I believe, supports my theory of regionalized migration patterns.
Based on the 2010 census county population data, I’m starting to believe that southern Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas might end up fairly well. The large population centers will have exhausted themselves before they breach to deeply into the rural areas of these states. The road networks, outside of the freeways, allow themselves to be easily blocked and the terrain suitable for extended blockades of key choke points. Population densities in these areas average about 50 people per square mile. High enough to have a good bullpen of expertise, low enough to feed off the excellent farmland and growing seasons and also deep in folks that know how to hunt and fish. Added to this is are other points, such as many stockpiled warehouses and transportation hubs, abundant fresh water, mineral reserves, natural gas and oil. In a totally “grid down” situation, these factors, at least to me add up to the positive.
I am new to prepping but have always been an avid camper, hunter and fisherman. I’m a Navy vet, good marksman and Christian man, though not as devout as I should be. I love my country and what it stands for, or used to stand for. I ask for your opinion on my analysis. I know how busy you must be and should I not hear back from you, rest assured that you have an avid fan of your books and precepts!
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