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One Possible False Flag Operation: An Attack On The USS Enterprise CVN 65
The failure of negotiations and sanctions to end Iran’s nuclear program make an Israeli attack probable in the near future, but such an attack would be of little value without US involvement. Israel doesn’t have the conventional weapons necessary to cause significant harm to Iran’s nuclear program (a,d). The US has these weapons including air refueling tankers, heavy bombers, and GBU-57s – massive ordnance penetrators. I submit Israel would not attack Iran if they did not calculate they could involve the US. During an Israeli attack on Iran, an Israeli submarine could get within striking distance of the Enterprise and launch a Soviet Sunburn supersonic, anti ship missile. Iran has such missiles.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has stated Tehran will retaliate against any attack by Israeli or American forces “on the same level that they attack us.” (b) I interpret this to mean Iran is attempting to deter actions against them by threatening to respond in kind, but should they be attacked, they will not respond disproportionately. They do not wish military actions to escalate. I submit an attack on a neutral USS Enterprise would be an escalation they would not undertake.
Israel is not just bluffing in order to push through greater sanctions. Sanctions are nearly or are fully maxed out yet the saber rattling continues. Defense Secretary Panetta in early February stated his belief that there was a “strong likelihood” Israel would strike Iran in April, May, or June (c). This time line did not happen, but senior Americans doubt the Israelis are bluffing (c). In addition former, senior Israeli military and intelligence leaders have come out publicly to condemn the imprudence of an Israeli attack (d). These leaders would not take such public action if they knew Netanyahu and Barak were bluffing. They would have supported the bluff and kept quiet. They are not quiet. This is not a bluff.
Military analysts quoted in the Economist (a) indicate an Israeli attack without American support would be relatively ineffective. Mr. Panetta and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dempsey have both warned Israeli leaders that if they attacked they would be on their own (a). A false flag operation, however, could cause America to join Israel in actions against Iran.
