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“A Dramatic Escalation Appears Imminent” In Syria
Originally posted at The Saker / ZeroHedge.com
The situation in Syria has reached a watershed moment and a dramatic escalation of the war appears imminent. Let’s look again at how we reached this point.
During the first phase of the operation, the Syrian armed forces were unable to achieve an immediate strategic success. This is rather unsurprising. It is important to remember here that during the first weeks of the operation the Russian did not provide close air support to the Syrians. Instead, they chose to systematically degrade the entire Daesh (Note: I refer to *all* terrorist in Syria as “Daesh”) infrastructure including command posts, communication nodes, oil dumps, ammo dumps, supply routes, etc. This was important work, but it did not have an immediate impact upon the Syrian military. Then the Russians turned to two important tasks: to push back Daesh in the Latakia province and to hit the illegal oil trade between Daesh and Turkey. The first goal was needed for the protection of the Russian task force and the second one hit the Daesh finances. Then the Russians seriously turned to providing close air support. Not only that, but the Russians got directly involved with the ground operation.The second phase was introduced gradually, without much fanfare, but it made a big difference on the ground: the Russians and Syrians began to closely work together and they soon honed their collaboration to a quantitatively new level which allowed the Syrian commanders to use Russian firepower with great effectiveness. Furthermore, the Russians began providing modern equipment to the Syrians, including T-90 tanks, modern artillery systems, counter-battery radars, night vision gear, etc. Finally, according to various Russian reports, Russian special operations teams (mostly Chechens) were also engage in key locations, including deep in the rear of Daesh. As a result, the Syrian military for the first time went from achieving tactical successes to operational victories: for the first time the Syrian began to liberate key towns of strategic importance.
Finally, the Russians unleashed a fantastically intense firepower on Daesh along crucial sectors of the front. In northern Homs, the Russians bombed a sector for 36 hours in a row. According to the latest briefing of the Russian Defense Ministry, just between February 4th and February 11th, the Russian aviation group in the Syrian Arab Republic performed 510 combat sorties and engaged 1’888 terrorists targets. That kind of ferocious pounding did produce the expected effect and the Syrian military began slowly moving along the Turkish-Syrian border while, at the same time, threatening the Daesh forces still deployed inside the northern part of Aleppo. In doing so, the Russians and Syrian threatened to cut off the vital resupply route linking Daesh to Turkey. According to Russian sources, Daesh forces were so demoralized that they forced the local people to flee towards the Turkish border and attempted to hide inside this movement of internally displaced civilians.
This strategic Russian and Syrian victory meant that all the nations supporting Daesh, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the USA were facing a complete collapse of their efforts to overthrow Assad and to break-up Syria and turn part of it into a “Jihadistan”. The Americans could not admit this, of course, as for the Saudis, their threats to invade Syria were rather laughable. Which left the main role to Erdogan who was more than happy to provide the West with yet another maniacal ally willing to act in a completely irresponsible way just to deny the “other side” anything looking like a victory.
Erdogan seems to be contemplating two options. The first one is a ground operation into Syria aimed at restoring the supply lines of Daesh and at preventing the Syrian military from controlling the border. Here is a good illustration (taken from a SouthFront video) of what this would look like:
According to various reports, Erdogan has 18’000 soldiers supported by aircraft, armor and artillery poised along the border to execute such an invasion.
The second plan is even simpler, at least in theory: to create a no-fly zone over all of Syria. Erdogan personally mentioned this option several times, the latest one on Thursday the 11th.
Needless to say, both plans are absolutely illegal under international law and would constitute an act of aggression, the “supreme international crime” according to the Nuremberg Tribunal, because “it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.” Not that this would deter a megalomaniac like Erdogan.
Erdogan, and his backers in the West, will, of course, claim that a humanitarian disaster, or even a genocide, is taking place in Aleppo, that there is a “responsibility to protect” (R2P) and that no UNSC is needed to take such clearly “humanitarian” action. It would be “Sarajevo v2” or “Kosovo v2” all over again. The western media is now actively busy demonizing Putin, and just recently has offered the following topics to ponder to those poor souls who still listen to it:
- Putin ‘probably’ ordered the murder of Litvinenko.
- Putin ordered the murder of Litvinenko because Litvinenko was about to reveal that Putin was a pedophile (seriously, I kid you not – check for yourself!).
- WWIII could start by Russia invading Latvia.
- According to the US Treasury, Putin is a corrupt man.
- According to George Soros, Putin wants the “disintegration of the EU” and Russia is a bigger threat than the Jihadis.
- Russia is so scary that the Pentagon wants to quadruple the money for the defense of Europe.
- The Putin is strengthening ISIS in Syria and causing a wave of refugees.
There is no need to continue the list – you get the idea. It is really Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, Libya all over again, with the exact same “humanitarian crocodile tears” and the exact same rational for an illegal aggression. And instead of Sarajavo “martyr city besieged by Serbian butchers” we would now have Aleppo “martyr city besieged by Syrian butchers”.I even expect a series of false flags inside Aleppo next “proving” that “the world” “must act” to “prevent a genocide”.
The big difference, of course, is that Yugoslavia, Serbia, Iraq and Libya were all almost defenseless against the AngloZionist Empire. Not so Russia.
In purely military terms, Russia has taken a number of crucial steps: she declared a large scale “verification” of the “combat readiness” of the Southern and Central military districts. In practical terms, this means that all the Russian forces are on high alert, especially the AeroSpace forces, the Airborne Forces, the Military Transportation Aviation forces and, of course, all the Russian forces in Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet. The first practical effect of such “exercises” is not only to make a lot of forces immediately available, but it is also to make them very difficult to track. This not only protects the mobilized forces, but also makes it very hard for the enemy to figure out what exactly they are doing. There are also report that Russian Airborne Warning and Control (AWACS) aircraft – A-50M – are now regularly flying over Syria. In other words, Russia has taken the preparations needed to go to war with Turkey.
Needless to say, the Turks and the Saudis have also announced joint military exercises. They have even announced that Saudi aircraft will conduct airstrikes from the Incirlik air base in support of an invasion of Syria.
At the same time, the Russians have also launched a peace initiative centered around a general ceasefire starting on March 1st or even, according to the latest leaks, on February 15th. The goal is is transparent: to break the Turkish momentum towards an invasion of Syria. It is obvious that Russian diplomats are doing everything they can to avert a war with Turkey.
Here again I have to repeat what I have said already a million times in the past: the small Russian contingent in Syria is in a very precarious position: far away from Russia and very close (45km) to Turkey. Not only that, but the Turks have over 200 combat aircraft ready to attack, whereas the Russians probably has less than 20 SU-30/35/34s in total. Yes, these are very advanced aircraft, of the 4++ generation, and they will be supported by S-400 systems, but the force ratio remains a terrible 1:10.
Russia does, however, have one big advantage over Turkey: Russia has plenty of long-range bombers, armed with gravity bombs and cruise missiles, capable of striking the Turks anywhere, in Syria and in Turkey proper. In fact, Russia even has the capability to strike at Turkish airfields, something which the Turks cannot prevent and something which they cannot retaliate in kind for. The big risk for Russia, at this point, would be that NATO would interpret this as a Russian “aggression” against a member-state, especially if the (in)famous Incirlik air base is hit.
Erdogan also has to consider another real risk: that, while undoubtedly proficient, the Turkish forces might not be a match for the battle-hardened Kurds and Syrians, especially if the latter are supported by Iranian and Hezbollah forces. The Turks have a checkered record against the Kurds whom they typically do overwhelm with firepower and numbers, but whom they never succeeded in neutralizing, subduing or eliminating. Finally, there is the possibility that Russians might have to use their ground forces, especially in the task force in Khmeimim is really threatened.
In this regard, let me immediately say that the projection of, say, an airborne force so far from the Russian border to protect a small contingent like the one in Khmeimim is not something the Airborne Forces are designed for, at least not “by the book”. Still, in theory, if faced with a possible attack on the Russian personnel in Khmeimin, the Russians could decide to land a regimental-size airborne force, around 1’200 men, fully mechanized, with armor and artillery. This force could be supplemented by a Naval Infantry battalion with up to another 600 men. This might not seem like much in comparison to the alleged 18’000 men Erdogan has massed at the border, but keep in mind that only a part of these 18’000 would be available for any ground attack on Khmeimin and that the Russian Airborne forces can turn even a much larger force into hamburger meat (for a look at modern Russian Airborne forces please see here). Frankly, I don’t see the Turks trying to overrun Khmeimin, but any substantial Turkish ground operation will make such a scenario at least possible and Russian commanders will not have the luxury of assuming that Erdogan is sane, not after the shooting down of the SU-24. After that the Russians simply have to assume the worst.
What is clear is that in any war between Russia and Turkey NATO will have to make a key decision: is the alliance prepared to go to war with a nuclear power like Russia to protect a lunatic like Erdogan? It is hard to imagine the US/NATO doing something so crazy but, unfortunately, wars always have the potential to very rapidly get out of control. Modern military theory has developed many excellent models of escalation but, unfortunately, no good model of how de-escalation could happen (at least not that I am aware of). How does one de-escalate without appearing to be surrendering or at least admitting to being the weaker side?
The current situation is full of dangerous and unstable asymmetries: the Russian task force in Syria is small and isolated and it cannot protect Syria from NATO or even from Turkey, but in the case of a full-scale war between Russia and Turkey, Turkey has no chance of winning, none at all. In a conventional war opposing NATO and Russia I personally don’t see either side losing (whatever ‘losing’ and ‘winning’ mean in this context) without engaging nuclear weapons first. This suggests to me that the US cannot allow Erdogan to attack the Russian task force in Syria, not during a ground invasion and, even less so, during an attempt to establish a no-fly zone.
The problem for the USA is that it has no good option to achieve its overriding goal in Syria: to “prevent Russia from winning”. In the delusional minds of the AngloZionist rulers, Russia is just a “regional power” which cannot be allowed to defy the “indispensable nation”. And yet, Russia is doing exactly that both in Syria and in the Ukraine and Obama’s entire Russia policy is in shambles. Can he afford to appear so weak in an election year? Can the US “deep state” let the Empire be humiliated and its weakness exposed?
The latest news strongly suggests to me that the White House has taken the decision to let Turkey and Saudi Arabia invade Syria. Turkish officials are openly saying that an invasion is imminent and that the goal of such an invasion would be toreverse the Syrian army gains along the boder and near Aleppo. The latest reports are also suggesting that the Turks have begun shelling Aleppo. None of that could be happening without the full support of CENTCOM and the White House.
The Empire has apparently concluded that Daesh is not strong enough to overthrow Assad, at least not when the Russian AeroSpace forces are supporting him, so it will now unleash the Turks and the Saudis in the hope of changing the outcome of this war or, if that is not possible, to carve up Syria into ‘zones of responsibility” – all under the pretext of fighting Daesh, of course.
The Russian task force in Syria is about to be very seriously challenged and I don’t see how it could deal with this new threat by itself. I very much hope that I am wrong here, but I have do admit that a *real* Russian intervention in Syria might happen after all, with MiG-31s and all. In fact, in the next few days, we are probably going to witness a dramatic escalation of the conflict in Syria.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-15/dramatic-escalation-apperars-imminent-syria
Read more great articles at ZeroHedge here:
There are over 100 Catholic Prophecies from as far back as a few centuries and more to just the last 50 years, all describing a massive Russian attack on all of Western Europe, America, Turkey, Greece, Italy, etc. According to these many saints, mystics, stigmatics, visionaries, etc: God is going to let our enemies punish us severely for the sins of abortion, homosexuality, contraception, pornography, etc, but mostly for the now universal “apostasy”, the abandonment of the true faith and doctrines given us by Our Lord, by the very hierarchy of the Church, just as the Scribes and Pharisee’s did in the past, but this time, God will, intervene, only when both the Church and world seem lost. But let me a few of these prophecies:
- Some had mentioned a “large battle near Aleppo, Syria” between Russian and Western forces.
- Sister Lucia of Fatima said: April 7,1990: Because Russia was not converted (to Catholicism) Russia attacks both Europe and America.
- Blessed Sister Elena Aiello (1895-1961), Italian mystic and stigmatic, from her many revelations: “Russia will attack and overrun all of Europe and she will attack America with her secret armies. Every major city in the world will be destroyed by earthquakes, tidal waves and WWIII, including several whole countries and provinces will disappear in massive earthquakes, that those now are just small warnings to mankind for his sins.
- In 1984, Pope JPII asked a German mystic what he had seen in his visions to which he replied: I saw the sky black with planes and missiles coming out of Russia towards the West (Europe) in numbers the world never imagined Russia had been amassing secretly, and two submarines surfacing on the East and West Coast of America and firing their missiles at the coastal cities.
In the late 1950′s, Pope Pius XII had said that ‘at that time, i.e. 1950′s, the world was worse than before the Great Flood. Not a few years later, Our Lord appeared to Sister Aiello and told her the same, including that not one, not one government in the world anymore was worthy of God’s grace or protection, that they were now all evil; and this was over 50 years ago. Might I mention that the German mystic and stigmatic, who lived in the 18th. century, Blessed Sister Emmerich, had said from her revelations that the devil will be let loose from hell around the year 1950 – makes sense doesn’t it.
But one last one:
Marie-Julie Jahenny (1850-1941) French mystic and stigmatic (bore the mysterious and scientifically unexplainable wounds of Our Lord), from her visions that have even more to reveal, but for this subject, she was shown WWI, WWII and WWIII. She reveals that in WWIII, Russia will attack Europe and the West in three wedges: 1. Russia attacks and overwhelms all the Scandinavian and Baltic countries quickly. 2. Russia attacks through East Germany to France and Spain, uniting with Islam such as Iran and others. 3. Russia attacks and overwhelms quickly also, the Balkans, Turkey, Greece, and then to Italy. Both St. Pope Pius X/19th. cen. and St. John Bosco/18th. cen. had visions of the same massive attack on Europe and Italy, with Russian troops entering the Vatican, raising their flag over St. Peters over the dead bodies of all the priests. All this because the West, Catholicism, the hierarchy of the Church have abandoned God and have fallen into complete moral decadence and apostasy.
All American forces overseas are killed, all American supply depots are captured, and Russia wins everywhere for the first year or two of this four year WWIII – which is preceded by the most violent civil war and revolution in all of history in Europe and America, for three or four months; then in the chaos and turmoil, Russia attacks.
We, win in the end, but not before a price is exacted that is apocalyptic, over 3/4 of the world dies. Not until God’s justice has been appeased, will He intervene, which God eventually does when all seems lost. In America we get attacked from six sides.
1. Florida: Brazil, Cuba, Venezuela, and several other S. American countries side with Russia. These plans have already been agreed to and Russia has been pouring arms, munitions and weaponry into these S. American countries for a few years now.
2. Mexico: Sides with Russia as above. Recent Intelligence reports and satellite imagery have caught Russian and Chinese ships unloading tanks, heavy weaponry and munitions in Mex. ports and they transport these to salt mines hidden from satellites near the American border.
3. Pennsylvania: Russian and other?? elements strike out from the East Coast in an attempt to drive past Pittsburgh to the interior.
4. Minnesota: Russian and Muslim elements strike out to sabotage bridges, roads, dams, airports, railways, utilities and the electrical grid. Note: Tens of thousands of Russian and Muslims live in Mich. Minn. Ohio and the Dakota’s.
Several Russian defectors have testified to Congress (who did not believe them) that the Russians and Chinese have been bringing in weaponry and munitions for a several years and hiding them in the northern states. In the last several months US Customs have revealed they have intercepted several Russian and Chinese weapons shipments at three Western Ports and two Eastern Ports with some having shoulder fired anti-aircraft missiles and heavy weaponry. Customs has mentioned that they have estimated that they have intercepted less than a fraction of 1% of what has come into the country.
5. Alaska: Russian attempt to drive from Alaska to the US/Can. border south of Winnipeg, Manitoba, in an attempt to reach the Mississippi and cut America in half. However, American and Canadian forces ( and most prob. many civilians) stop them at the border.
6. California: One million Chinese amphibious assault and landing on the West Coast (with help from within our own government traitors). They take to the Rockies for six months before we drive them back into the ocean, but kill millions of men, women and children. Do search and read the following – a must – “2005 Speech by the Chinese Minister of Defense” to Chinese military officers and government officials – again – a must read.
Our country has been taken over by a group of Marxist/Atheist Criminals, but somehow, during this coming civil war, revolution and Russian attack, somehow, a “good and patriotic” element takes over our government, how ????
No electricity, food, gas, transportation, utilities, nothing but possibly at first oppressive martial law and an attempt to disarm America by Obama or/and similar traitors. Starvation on a level never imagined in America leading to widespread cannibalism, nothing but gangs, mobs, neighbors once docile turning into monsters and your enemy.
The civil war and revolution last for three or four months and then Russia and China, with their allies attack.
We win in the end, the Russians and Islam are eventually defeated by the “Great Monarch” mentioned in dozens of authentic Catholic prophecies. (Search the Great Monarch to come). All the enemies of God, His Church (including those “within”) and our countries are annihilated, totally, not one will live, but at first it will seem very dire and the fight will be extremely fierce. Get out of the cities, it is said that very few to near none will survive in the cities.
Following comes the “Three Days Darkness” warned by many saints, nothing will light for 3 days and nights, and all the enemies of God and His Church still alive will be killed. (Search and read St. Padre Pio and the 3 Days Darkness)
Not your personal Island, your deep cave or tunnels, nothing will protect those that God will “visit”. No matter your preparedness, if you be a Marine, Seal, Special Forces, Martial Artist, whatever, you will die if you are on the wrong side. All those who have and would still support abortion, homosexuality, contraception, pornography, among many other evils, who do not amend their lives, who stubbornly adhere to these evils, who do not repent and ask for forgiveness, will die. God forgives, provided one intends to amend one’s life and is sorry for their sins – God knows each one of our minds.
The Three Days Darkness: Thurs, Fri, and Sat, will force and end to WWIII, and there will be millions of lightning bolts an hour or more. This lightning will “disappear” all the pollution in the world, every bag, tire, piece of glass, metal, whatever, will disappear, all the chemical pollution in the oceans and ground will be neutralized and disappear. Every stream, creek, river, lake, and ocean will become “pristine” like at the beginning of the world, teaming with fish and food, the lightning will release all the nitrogen and elements in the ground towards abundant crops, this will be the greatest era of peace, prosperity, honesty and virtue the world has ever seen. Whole countries, provinces, and land masses will disappear in massive earthquakes and “new land masses” appear in the oceans to be inhabited. Very little need for hospitals *, police and lawyers, say the saints, man will return to the land and to small towns and villages, no more large cities and factories to sap men’s minds. This will be the era and “Peace of Our
Lady” the Mother of God.
* Some saints such as St. Hildegard/13th. century, who had visions of this great chastisement, among many others, revealed that in the “20th. century”, yes she said, in the 20th. century, man and the world will fall into moral decadence, but thereafter, when all has been cleansed, when only 1/4 or less of the world remains, “every ninth person will be given the gift of healing” the gift and grace to heal the most serious of maladies and whatever, thus very little need for hospitals, doctors, etc.
Get ready, get out of the cities, find a relative, friend, cabin, farm, somewhere to go to when it happens, and it’s coming very soon, this year or next at most, say some recent revelations in Europe. Pray the Rosary every day and wear the Brown Scapular.
YOU GOT TO BE KIDDING!!!
here’s a reality check for you…
http://w2.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/speeches/2014/november/documents/papa-francesco_20141130_turchia-firma-dichiarazione.html
http://news.yahoo.com/vaticans-approval-iraq-strikes-rare-exception-peace-policy-041338848.html
http://en.radiovaticana.va/news/2014/08/13/iraq__abp_tomasi_on_pope%E2%80%99s_appeal_to_un%E2%80%99s_ban_ki-moon_/110446
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29190890
BUNCH OF HYPOCRITES SUPPORTING THE WILD BEASTS … THE U.N. & ANGLO AMERICA …EVEN IF IT LEADS TO A NUCLEAR WAR!!
AND PLEASE PEOPLE… DON’T TALK TO ME ABOUT SOME REVOLUTION IN AMERICA TO STOP IT.. . LIKE THE HYPOCRITES HERE ON B4
think real hard about what the kingdoms coming means… according to scripture:
“And I saw THE WILD BEAST and…… THE KINGS OF THE EARTH AND….. THEIR ARMIES GATHERED TOGETHER TO WAGE WAR AGAINST THE ONES SEATED ON THE HORSE AND AGAINST HIS ARMY. And the wild beast was caught, and along with it the false prophet that performed in front of it the signs with which he misled those who received the mark of the wild beast and those who worship its image. While still alive, they both were hurled into the fiery lake that burns with sulfur.” (Re 19:19, 20)
““In the days of those kings … THE GOD OF HEAVEN WILL SET UP A KINGDOM…that will never be destroyed. And this kingdom will not be passed on to any other people. IT WILL CRUSH AND PUT AN END TO ALL THESE KINGDOMS, AND IT ALONE WILL STAND FOREVER, just as you saw that out of the mountain a stone was cut NOT BY HANDS, and that it crushed the iron, the copper, the clay, the silver, and the gold. The Grand God has made known to the king what will happen in the future. The dream is true, and its interpretation is trustworthy.”” (Da 2:44, 45)
NOTICE…”the stone” …GODS KINGDOM … “is not cut by hands”… “in the days of those kings” AND IT WILL “crush all these ….(OTHER) …kingdoms”
As much as you hate to admit it Jehovah’ Witnesses had it right!! and THEY STAY POLITICALLY NEUTRAL BECAUSE THE STICK TO GOD’S KINGDOM NOT MANS
BRING ON THE HATE!
But , but … the Pope met the Russian Orthodox Patriarch in Cuba a few days ago and they stopped the 1000 year estrangement between the east and the west. Putin has passed himself off as a devout Russian Orthodox Christian. So if they are all moving as one now united by religion, how can it possibly be claimed that east and west are officially at odds?
One barrier to truth is the conviction that you already have it. ~ Mark Twain
I don’t understand any of it myself. But at least we should consider such landmark reconciliations as indicators of movement toward a one world government. “Let us make a name for ourselves.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-pope-orthodox-cuba-arrival-idUSKCN0VL26B
ya… like bringing your wife flowers… NOPE… ain’t gonna be another fight y’all
Fully Support RUSSIA and the SYRIAN army.When the ICBM’s start falling around Obama’s ears he’ll know he made a poor decision.Unless ofcourse nuclear War was his longterm objective.You know they love their phoenix metephores.The World doesn’t need Turkey,Saudi or any other nation that has a part in ISIS.