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Doug L. Hoffman: Secrets Of The Climate Modeling Mystics
Article Tags: Doug L. Hoffman
Climate modelers are still trying to create a clockwork climate machine
For half a century, climate scientists have been attempting to simulate the workings of Earth’s climate system in computer models. Over that period of time computers have increased in computational power a million fold, allowing models to grow in complexity and, if you accept the word of the modelers themselves, accuracy. Today’s models may produce more realistic output but that should not be confused with more accurate output—modern climate models are still unable to accurately predict future fluctuations in Earth’s environment. Why this should be so is highlighted in a new paper published in the Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES), a publication of the American Geophysical Union. In it the tuning secrets of those modern-day mystics, climate modelers, are revealed.
Early on, computer modelers were content to capture the rough behavior of isolated parts of the physical world: heat transfer, fluid flow in ocean and atmosphere, and such. These models were created to provide scientists with insight into natural processes where it was impractical to perform real-world experiments. This is a thoroughly reasonable application of computer models. But as computers became larger and more powerful the modelers soon expanded the complexity of their code, aiming eventually to simulate the system of the world. Sadly, the development of these models went hand in hand with the rise of climate change alarmism—the over hyped and unproven theory that human activity was causing a dangerous warming of the global climate.
Source: theresilientearth.com
2012-11-15 04:48:07
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