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People and The Planet
The Royal Society
Summary
The 21st century is a critical period for people and the
planet. The global population reached 7 billion during
2011 and the United Nations projections indicate
that it will reach between 8 and 11 billion by 2050.
Human impact on the Earth raises serious concerns,
and in the richest parts of the world per capita
material consumption is far above the level that can
be sustained for everyone in a population of 7 billion
or more. This is in stark contrast to the world’s 1.3
billion poorest people, who need to consume more
in order to be raised out of extreme poverty.
The highest fertility rates are now seen primarily in
the least developed countries while the lowest fertility
rates are seen in the more developed countries,
and increasingly in Asia and Latin America. Despite
a decline in fertility almost everywhere, global
population is still growing at about 80 million per
year, because of the demographic momentum
inherent in a large cohort of young people. The global
rate of population growth is already declining, but
the poorest countries are neither experiencing, nor
benefiting from, this decline.
Population and consumption are both important:
the combination of increasing global population
and increasing overall material consumption has
implications for a finite planet. As both continue to
rise, signs of unwanted impacts and feedback (eg
climate change reducing crop yields in some areas)
and of irreversible changes (eg the increased rate
of species extinction) are growing alarmingly. The
relationship between population, consumption and
the environment is not straightforward, as the natural
environment and human socioeconomic systems
are complex in their own right. The Earth’s capacity
to meet human needs is finite, but how the limits
are approached depends on lifestyle choices and
associated consumption; these depend on what is
used, and how, and what is regarded as essential for
human wellbeing.
Demographic change is driven by economic
development, social and cultural factors as well as
environmental change. A transition from high to
low birth and death rates has occurred in various
cultures, in widely different socio-economic settings,
and at different rates. Countries such as Iran and
South Korea have moved through the phases of this
transition much more rapidly than Europe or North
America. This has brought with it challenges different
from those that were experienced by the more
developed countries as they reached the late stages
of the transition.
Population is not only about the growing numbers
of people: changes in age structure, migration,
urbanisation and population decline present both
opportunities and challenges to human health,
wellbeing and the environment. Migrants often
provide benefits to their countries of origin, through
remittances, and to their host countries by helping
to offset a workforce gap in ageing populations.
Current and future migration will be affected by
environmental change, although lack of resources
may mean that the most vulnerable to these
changes are the least able to migrate. Policy makers
should prepare for international migration and its
consequences, for integration of migrants and for
protection of their human rights.
Developing countries will be building the equivalent
of a city of a million people every five days from
now to 2050. The continuing and rapid growth of
the urban population is having a marked bearing
on lifestyle and behaviour: how and what they
consume, how many children they have, the type
of employment they undertake. Urban planning is
essential to avoid the spread of slums, which are
highly deleterious to the welfare of individuals and
societies.
The demographic changes and consumption patterns
described above lead to three pressing challenges.
First, the world’s 1.3 billion poorest people need
to be raised out of extreme poverty. This is critical
to reducing global inequality, and to ensuring the
wellbeing of all people. It will require increased per
capita consumption for this group, allowing improved
nutrition and healthcare, and reduction in family size
in countries with high fertility rates.
To Continue Reading download the whole report in PDF from The Royal Society here
2012-09-02 11:11:16