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CITI: This Is What Will Happen To The Global Economy Through The Next Three Years
Sam Ro|49 minutes ago|10,328|
Citi recently published its 56-page Global Economic Outlook and Strategy report, which provides up-to-date commentary and forecasts for the major economies covered by the bank’s army of economists.
In a nutshell, the global economy is struggling to generate positive growth. And two of the world’s largest economies – China and Japan – are getting worse.
Continued below.
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“The outlook is balanced between economic fragilities — with slowing growth in Asia, subpar recovery in the US and widespread recessions plus periphery strains in Europe — coupled with a new wave of central bank stimulus (monetary policy, credit easing and extra liquidity) across all major economic regions.,” wrote Citi Chief Economist Willem Buiter. “We are leaving our 2012 global growth forecast (at current exchange rates) at 2.5%, while cutting our 2013 forecast to 2.6% from 2.8% last month. Within that, we are making notable cuts to our growth forecasts for China and Japan, plus more modest forecast downgrades to a range of emerging markets, especially in Asia plus Central and Eastern Europe.”
Buiter’s team breaks down what’s going on in each economy. We pulled the highlights.
North America
The United States will avoid a full fiscal cliff, but there will be a 1 percentage point drag from the public sector
GDP Growth Forecast
- 2012: 2.2%
- 2013: 1.9%
- 2014: 3.0%
- 2015: 3.5%
Citi’s Robert DiClementi notes food and gas prices have been unfavorable lately. But overall, inflation has been tame. The U.S. economy is also being bolstered by improving housing indicators and an easy Federal Reserve. Citi assumes the U.S. will “avoid a fiscal calamity in 2013.”
Source: Citi
Canada’s business and consumer confidence are strong
GDP Growth Forecast- 2012: 2.0%
- 2013: 2.2%
- 2014: 2.8%
- 2015: 3.2%
Citi’s Dana Peterson notes that Canada continues to grow driven by consumer spending and business investment. Financial conditions also continue to improve.
Source: Citi
Mexico’s industrial sector is strong, but it’s slowing
GDP Growth Forecast
- 2012: 3.9%
- 2013: 3.8%
- 2014: 3.5%
- 2015: 3.6%
Citi’s Sergio Luna Martinez notes the industrial sector has been strong, boosted by demand for transportation equipment.
Source: Citi
South America
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Brazil is struggling from both global and domestic factors
GDP Growth Forecast
- 2012: 1.4%
- 2013: 3.9%
- 2014: 4.5%
- 2015: 4.5%
Citi’s Marcelo Kfoury notes that Brazil is struggling from a slowing global economy as well as high food price inflation.
Source: Citi
Notice how the current year is always a muted GDP number, but somehow in the following years it unexpectedly rises for no apparent reason?
These fools have been saying this for 4 years now, every year they anticipate a better year ahead and every year they have to backtrack on their analysis.
Totally, a 5 yr old may have a better chance of getting it right by bashing out numbers on a calculator. The jumps are based on hope and with the aim to settle some nerves, which it will, until the people who still refuse to see the path we are hurtling down wake up one morning and realise that their whole life is a con, a lie and basically a sham.