A quick recap to the September 2012 trade data released today:
Import growth has positive implications historically to the economy – and the seasonally adjusted imports were reported up month-over-month. Econintersect analysis shows contraction of 0.6% month-over-month (unadjusted) – however year-over-year growth declined 2.0% with most of the year-over-year decline caused by lower petroleum imports.
Exports were reported up, but Econintersect analysis shows exports down 0.6% month-over-month – however year-over-year growth at 1.0%.. The tailwind was industrial supplies.
The market expected a trade deficit between $45.4 and $46.5 billion and the seasonally adjusted headline deficit from US Census came in at a $41.5 billion deficit.
I will not say that the trade data is recessionary (although it is possible to argue this point) – but it definitely points to a slowing USA and global economy.