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The 21st Century Will Belong to the U.S. & NOT China – Here’s Why
Lorimer Wilson / Munknee.com
“The American Century Ends, and the Pacific Century begins.” Seriously? We say B.S. to that.
This moment in history is not the end of American dominance. If anything it is a beginning. In terms of dominance, America has barely rolled up its sleeves. [Let me explain.]
So say edited excerpts taken from an article* by mercenarytrader.com and posted** on SeekingAlpha.com under the title China To Bypass The United States… Blah, Blah, Who Cares?.
The article goes on to say in further edited excerpts:
The Economist reports in an article entitled Crowning the Tiger that China is on track to reclaim its crown (held until 1890 when America surpassed it) as the world’s largest economy by the end of this year concluding that “the American Century ends, and the Pacific Century begins”.
(click to enlarge)
We were fine until that last line, at which point we started laughing. Nobody has a crystal ball, and nobody knows for certain how the future will play out but, that said, we have odds and probabilities and the lessons of history at hand. As such, we can say pretty strongly: The 21st century will NOT be China’s. If anything the 21st century will belong – again – to the United States.
Let us remember that America is:
- the richest nation in the history of the world
- the single nation responsible for roughly a quarter of global GDP
- an agricultural superpower (only the EU exports more grain, and they aren’t a country)
- a technology / innovation / intellectual property superpower
- an entrepreneurial superpower
- a military superpower (with control of two oceans)
- an energy superpower (thanks to the shale boom)
- a real estate superpower (more high-dollar real estate than anywhere else)
- a demographic superpower (deeply favorable age mix vs. Europe and China)
- home to the wealthiest, most innovative companies in the world (whose revenues are taxable)
- home to +70 trillion in household wealth
- home to literally hundreds of trillions in natural resource assets and physical capital assets
- home to the world’s reserve currency which still accounts for 90%+ (!) of global transactions
Surely some stuff has been left out there…the broader point, though, is that America has barely begun to feel its strengths.
George Friedman, in his book entitled “The Next Decade“…thinks that, far from bestriding the 21st century like a colossus, China will actually become a relative backwater – too beset by managing internal problems to do much on the world stage – and that America is only in the “adolescent” stage of feeling its power…
Friedman could be wrong, but we more or less agree that this is the way to bet. If anyone has claim on “the 21st century,” it remains the United States and, for those inclined to comparing the American empire to the Roman empire or the British empire, remember how long those empires lasted. For the comparison to be accurate in rough historical development terms, we would have at least a hundred years to go (if not more) before hitting our zenith…
We do not mention all this because we are hyper-patriotic rah-rah USA types (though we do count ourselves glad to be American). Instead we are just looking at sober facts in light of the “big prediction” that China’s economy will outgrow the United States in PPP terms. In the true “big scheme of things,” this doesn’t matter much at all. Being big is not reason to brag, or a necessary source of power, if you are beset by crisis and troubles and constant fires to put out at home…
Make no mistake, America is heading into the 21st century with massive, massive net advantages…and thus far those advantages are not truly threatened in the least.
*Copyright 2012 Mercenary Trader – All Rights Reserved; **http://seekingalpha.com/article/2180983-china-to-bypass-the-united-states-blah-blah-who-cares?; © 2014 Seeking Alpha
http://www.munknee.com/21st-century-will-belong-u-s-china-heres/
