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GMO Statistics Part 17. Correlation is not causation, even for chocolate eating Swedes.
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| Image at Wikipedia |
DISCUSSION (at New England Journal of Medicine open access)
The principal finding of this study is a surprisingly powerful correlation between chocolate intake per capita and the number of Nobel laureates in various countries. Of course, a correlation between X and Y does not prove causation but indicates that either X influences Y, Y influences X, or X and Y are influenced by a common underlying mechanism. However, since chocolate consumption has been documented to improve cognitive function, it seems most likely that in a dose-dependent way, chocolate intake provides the abundant fertile ground needed for the sprouting of Nobel laureates. Obviously, these findings are hypothesis-generating only and will have to be tested in a prospective, randomized trial.
The only possible outlier in Figure 1 seems to be Sweden. Given its per capita chocolate consumption of 6.4 kg per year, we would predict that Sweden should have produced a total of about 14 Nobel laureates, yet we observe 32. Considering that in this instance the observed number exceeds the expected number by a factor of more than 2, one cannot quite escape the notion that either the Nobel Committee in Stockholm has some inherent patriotic bias when assessing the candidates for these awards or, perhaps, that the Swedes are particularly sensitive to chocolate, and even minuscule amounts greatly enhance their cognition.
@ Chocolate Consumption, Cognitive Function, and Nobel Laureates — NEJM:
2012-10-13 12:43:26
Source: http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2012/10/gmo-statistics-part-17-correlation-is.html
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