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Asian Session Notes 9/11/12
AIDJPY
Resistance: 80.94 minor / 81.16(22) moderate / 81.62 minor
Support: 80.65 moderate / 80.41 minor / 80.07 minor
With friday’s move failing to retain above EMA levels and seeing a long wick monday turned out to be a bear market with a rejection from the daily EMA lines pushing the daily stochastic into a bear cross while macd main line is flat just under the signal line. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bear from the 4H picture pushing back into oversoild levels while macd crosses down. Hourly charts for their part has an oversold stochastic with bearish macd. Look for push under 80.65 to signal further weakness while a rejection from the 21D EMA 81.16(22) may also be seen as a possible entry setup though with a tight stop.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.2769 minor / 1.2808 strong / 1.2840 minor
Support: 1.2748 moderate / 1.2696 minor / 1.2648 minor
We spent much of monday in a range play for Euro finally breaking lower in late US trade as equities continued to pullback. It appears we are getting rejected from the 200D SMA though indicators continue to be bullish in daily stochastic and macd’s. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of bears with stochastic oversold and the macd’s crossing lower. Hourly charts for their part are looking mixed. Look for a close below 1.2748 to signal further weakness for 1.2694 perhaps signalling the start of a mean reversion play following your spike Friday. Alternative entry will be from just under 1.2808 200D SMA.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0345 moderate / 1.0367 minor / 1.0401 moderate
Support: 1.0315 / 1.0299 minor / 1.0275 minor
We have aussy pushing back under the daily EMA lines yesterday with daily stochastic seeing new bear crosses coming off overbought areas though the macd has just crossed up. Note we have Business Confidence figures at 0130GMT from NAB. In intrday charts we have a confluence of bears from both hourly and the 4H picture. Stochastic is oversold in both time frames while macd’s has just crossed lower from the 4H picture. Consider a sell on rallies to 1.0345 while a break of 1.0315 can also be seen as a bearish entry. Stops should be placed above 1.0368 immediately for any new short.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6018 moderate / 1.6049 strong / 1.6080 minor
Support: 1.5983 minor / 1.5921 moderate / 1.5881 minor
Monday saw Cable with a long tail bouncing off earlier lows in relatively modest ranges with mean reversion risk an issue. From indicators we are poised to comeout of overbought levels in stochastic while the macd is still pointing up. Note we are well resisted at the 1.6048 region. In the lower time frames we have a bearish divergence out of stochastic while the macd’s has a new bear cross in the 4H charts, candlesticks look indecisive. Hourly charts for their part are seeing mixed signals. Given the strength of resistances and the 4H bearish divergence we prefer taking the sell side from 1.6018 or using a break of 1.5983 for a bearish entry.
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2012-09-10 22:45:00
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-91112
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