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GBP/EUR back above 1.25, GBP/USD above 1.62 and GBP/AUD stable at 1.55. Forecast for GBP/UER, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD
Sterling exchange rates have regained some ground against the Euro towards the tail end of this week peaking above the 1.25 level this morning following a fall to 1.235o mid week. What now for the short term projections for GBP/EUR? The good news for Euro buyers is that even following a relatively downbeat assessment of the UK economy from Bank of England Chairman Mervyn King, however his assessment of the global economy was also negative warning that he felt the euro zone could still fall apart. First signs of the UK’s struggle to get throught his recession were expected to be shown with this morning, and indeen the UK’s public net sector borrowing figures have widened giving concern the government will not reach its debt reduction targets, howveer tjis has done little to GBP/EUR thsi morning. This is probably as a news comes that Spain may soon move to request further aid and the feel good factor behind the Euro bond buying programme announced by Mario Draghi may already be subsiding. I personally can see a little more upside for GBP/EUR and see a move back towards 1.26, however I think the short term gains may well be curbed as I believee teh Bank fo England are likley to implement further monetary stimulus in the months to come.
Best rates for the USD
GBP exchange rates are close to a 52 week high against the USD offering some attractive opportunities. However, as with GBP/EUR, I believe trends are likley to be in favour of the pound in the coming weeks. I personally see a move towards 1.64 as the prospect of QE3 in the US becomes a likley reality, more so than in the UK it would seem. The only hinderence for US dollar buyers could be a fall in risk apetite should negative sentiment return to the euro zone. Should Spain request aid I would expect a flight to safety and a move from risker currencies to the relative safety of the US dollar, something that I feel will be inevitable in the longer term. I would expect a slight upturn towards 1.63/64 in the next few days and weeks, however longer term I believe a retrace below 1.60 as problems in Europe are likley to curb dollar losses.
Moving money to AUD
With falling commodity prices, fall in growth from China, and the prospect of falling interest rates and a looming recession in Australia the value of the Aussie has been on somewhat of a downward spiral. In fact moves have been good for those buying AUD (we have seen a shift of nearly 6% since the beginning of August for GBP/AUD), and this to me should represnt a good buy opportunity. I personally think we are reaching a peak for short term moves against the AUD, and with the prospect of further QE in the UK it could be time time for you to take advantage.
To discuss my market views and the potential implications for your currency transfer please feel free to contact me direct. As part of the service I will be happy to run through the various contracts we can offer and how we can save you money on your currency exchange. Should you prefer to speak over the phone then please call the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at [email protected]
2012-09-21 17:40:50
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