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Asian Session Notes 10/18/2012
USDCAD
Resistance: 0.9801 minor / 0.9824 minor / 0.9844 minor
Support: 0.9767 moderate / 0.9742 moderate / 0.9719 minor
After failing to take out the inverted head and shoulder neckline Tuesday we saw USDCAD with a big sell-off in yesterdays trade closing back under the bearish daily EMA lines. Among indicators we have daily macd poised at a bearish cross while stochastic is heading for oversold territory with pruces just under the 21D EMA. From the 4H level we have stochastic oversold and macd’s heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has macd’s bottoming out while stochastic is overbought with a possible bear cross in the making.As with the other commodity currencies we look to China data for a possible catalyst. Good numbers out of China should see us pushing below 0.9767 while poor figures in Industrial PRoduction and over all growth will be an excuse for a bounce with stops just below 0.9767.
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8233 moderate / 0.8265 moderate / 0.8295 minor
Support: 0.8209 minor / 0.8189 moderate / 0.8161 minor
After seeing a false break and a long tail Tuesday we have Kiwi with a big rally pushing back up above the 21D EMA with the close suggesting we are now seeing a bounce off the daily EMA lines. Indicators now see stochastic poised to push overbought while the daily macd has bottomed and is near its own bullish crossover. From the lower time frames we have indecision in 4H candlesticks with stochastic crawling overbought while macd is bullish. Hourly charts has mixed signals with a bullish crossover in stochastic while macd has also just crossed lower. With China data likely to move the commodity currencies and NZDUSD seeing a tight congestion we prefer an OCO straddle with buy stops just above the congestion high of 1.8226 and sell stops just under the congestion floor of 0.8209.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0386 moderate / 1.0420 minor / 1.0463 moderate
Support: 1.0350 minor / 1.0326 moderate / 1.0288 moderate
Aussy closed Wednesday with a bullish daily candle just under the moderate resistance at 1.0386, daily indicators has macd heading higher following its recent bullish cross while stochastic is overbought. Note we face a catalyst out of Chinese data at 0200GMT with a myriad of numbers from GBP, Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales set for release. In intraday charts we have stochastic overbought and macd rising in 4H charts while the hourly level has stochastic just crossing higher and macd with a new bear cross. We also have an intraday head and shoulder pattern, this more visible from the 30 min picture. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though weak data will see us aggressively bearish with a rejection from 1.0387 and our SHS pattern getting triggered. Strong numbers will mean Aussy is a buy on a push through 1.0387.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3108 minor / 1.3140 minor / 1.3170 moderate
Support: 1.3085 minor / 1.3060 minor / 1.3021 minor
Wednesday saw the Euro with a high wave spinning top opening the possibility that a peak has been reached and EURUSD vulnerable to a technical correction. Indicators however remain bullish with stochastic overbought while macd has a new bullish crossover. Note with the gap between prices and the daily EMA’s mean reversion is also a risk. In the lower time frames we have 4H candles sticks with a qualified dark cloud cover while macd has topped off and stochastic is heading lower. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic oversold and macd’s heading lower. With the high wave spinning top and bearish bias intraday we prefer looking for shorts possibly starting a mean reversion play. We can take aggressive action at market or on a close below 1.3085.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.6134 minor / 1.6175 moderate / 1.6216 minor
Support: 1.6091 moderate / 1.6060 minor / 1.6025 moderate
At the close we saw Cable Wednesday with a long wick for a ‘shooting star’ in the daily charts opening the possibility that we already have a lower high in our series of lower highs and lower lows from September 21. Among indicators we have mixed signals with stochastic overbought while macd is poised at a bullish crossover. In the lower time frames we have 4H stochastic looking to push oversold while macd is topping off. Hourly charts for their part has an oversold stochastic while macd is heading lower. Given the daily candle we prefer focusing on getting a bearish trade ideal shorts will be off 1.6174 though the current immediate resistance is also a valid entry our objective to trigger further weakness by closing under 1.6091.
2012-10-17 22:03:30
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