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European Looks Forward With Further Gains Against the Dollar
The single European currency now seems far from the high of more than four months against the dollar reached 1.3172 on Monday and now flirting with $ 1.30, despite the launch of a program of asset purchases by the Bank of Japan, after the ECB and the Fed. At midday Wednesday, the euro cup for what could be its 3rd meeting on consolidation against the dollar, yielding 0.25% to 1.3012 dollar.
The euro also lost 0.12% to 0.8022 against the sterling and 0.19% to 1.2088 against the Swiss franc.
The monetary event tonight is the launch, in the wake of the ECB and the Fed, a new operation of quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). ‘The BoJ has increased the envelope for asset purchases of 45,000 to 55,000 billion yen in response to the actions of other central banks, the weakness of the Japanese recovery and the relative strength of the yen’, explained that a trader morning.
‘A renewed quantitative easing is always welcome in Japan, where the economy is hit by deflation, says the analyst. “The central bank opted for a further easing of monetary policy because of concerns about the global economic recovery and political tensions underway in China, its main export market,” added the broker also RTFX.
RTFX also writes that “the implementation deadline for these asset purchases has also been extended from six months to December 2013.”
The pair euro / yen is not responding this afternoon (- 0.02% to 102.79 yen the euro), but in a week the euro had already returned 2.4% against the yen.
Where are we, seems to ask the euro after its rebound, as its minimum and maximum of a month are located at 1.2295 and 1.3172 respectively dollar (or 7% between the high point and low point )?
“Europe remains the area most at risk of rupture. The thing has almost happened twice, when in November 2011 and July 2012, the capital markets are closed to certain countries and their banks’ recently reminded analysts Oddo Securities. But the ECB announced an intervention conditional on the bonds market short term.
‘This allows the brake to the real economy, but it does not offer a quick drive energy. Ultimately, Europe could head out of the water in the course of the next year ‘, prognostic Oddo. Saxo Bank is moderated by stating that “investors still remain attentive to the situation in Spain, which is slow to ask for a bailout with the European Union.”
The U.S. side takes Oddo, ‘the problem is simple. If the tax law is not changed, the resulting fiscal shock (4 percentage points of GDP) will the economy into recession. The political system may well be biased and unwilling to compromise bipartisan, this scenario can not be an option. Early 2013, the shock will be smoothed (but not completely canceled) and the debt ceiling will be raised. For the rest, neither side has a recipe for a labor market tone, which creates just enough jobs for the unemployment rate does not rise ‘, Economist summed yet.
2012-10-07 14:02:08
Source: http://www.dailyforextrade.com/european-looks-forward-with-further-gains-against-the-dollar/
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