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Asian Session Notes 4/30: Japanese numbers are mixed
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3113 moderate / 1.3162 minor / 1.3202 minor
Support: 1.3075 minor / 1.3045 moserate / 1.3017 moderate
Euro is having trouble in pushing past the 38.2 Fib retracement level of our sell-off from February though daily indicators suggests we have a bullish market in the making as stochastic head up and macd’s are poised to cross higher. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with the 4H stochastic coming off overbought level while macd is up, price action itself could possibly turn into a bullish continuation, ‘rising three method’ depending on the close in about 2-hours time. Hourly charts however show a decidedly lack of momentum as macd’s cross lower and stochastic also see a bear cross. It appears that we are trying to revive risk appetite though we need a close above 1.3113 for a bullish entry or a low based at the 55D EMA, 1.3045.Immediate risk is actually bearish with shorts from under 1.3113 and tight stop above the 1.3116 highs.
AUDJPY
Resistance: 101.53 moderate / 102.02 moderate / 102.63 moderate
Support: 101.08 minor / 100.38 moderate / 99.91 minor
Aussy Yen is set to close the day just around the 21D EA with the attempt at a bullish reversal losing steam, failing to see a piercing pattern. From indicators we have a confluence of bears as stochastic heads for oversold levels and macd is dropping. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals as stochastic comes off overbought areas while macd has crossed up in 4H charts though candlesticks have a ‘dark cloud cover’. Hourly charts for their part look mixed with stochastic coming off oversold levels while macd has a bear cross. For now we have a series of data coming out of Japan with the first turning out strong. Good results could be taken as an excuse for risk appetite with equity gains pushing the Yen lower as a funding play.
GBPJPY
Resistance: 152.11 minor / 152.55 moderate / 153.04 moderate
Support: 151.47 minor / 151.02 minor / 150.46 moderate
Monday had GBPJPY stuck in relatively modest ranges with a high wave candle in the end as we failed to get a follow through drop to your big bear candle Friday. We have a bearish confluence from daily macd and stochastic. In intraday charts we are seeing a confluence of bears from the 4H picture with stochastic just crossing lower and macd heading down. From the hourly picture we are seeing mixed signals as stochastic comes off oversold levels and macd has a bear cross. For now we waiting for the next catalyst for the yen pairs, with releases so far turning out to be good underscoring Japanese economic gains. Consider a straddle with buys above 152.11 and shorts under 151.47.
EURJPY
Resistance: 128.60 minor / 129.04 minor / 129.90 moderate
Support: 127.95 minor / 127.13 moderate / 126.42 minor
Combining the ‘sunday’ candle, Wellington trade with the rest of the monday price action will give us a bullish harami for a daily candlestick pattern, possibly invalidating the notion of a daily double top. Despite mondays push back above the EMA’s we still face a confluence of bears among indicators as stochastic is poised to push oversold and macd is dropping. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with a bear cross in stochastic and bullish macd while price action still has a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Hourly charts has stochastic crossing up and macd crossing down while prices are just above the trigger of our double bottom from Monday. For now immediate risk is a bounce off 127.95 the double bottom trigger in 4H charts. A close above 128.60 could also be seen as a bullish entry while a close under 127.95 brings the daily double top back in play.
USDJPY
Resistance: 97.96 minor / 98.21 minor / 98.54 moderate
Support: 97.66 minor / 97.34 moderate / 97.12 minor
We have a high wave candle in progress for the daily USDJPY chart with prices stuck between the 21D and 34D EMA’s. From the big picture we see a double top pattern still with daily stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also dropping. In the lower time frames we have 4H macd’s heading lower with stochastic also poised to see a bear cross of its own, note we have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows making up the second top. Hourly indicators are mixed with stochastic seeing a new bullish cross while macd is at the brink of a bear cross. Typically high wave candles mark a possible change in sentiment as such our immediate scenario calls for a push above 98.21 as a bullis entry. Alternative entry will be a bounce off the 34D EMA at 97.34 with a stop and reverse below 97.12.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5500 minor / 1.5547 minor / 5572 moderate
Support: 1.5465 minor / 1.5422 moderate / 1.5378 moderate
Monday ended up with a long wick in GBPUSD defining what could be our next higher high in the daily bullish channel. From indicators we are starting to see a confluence of buys with an overbought stochastic and macd’s rising. We also have daily EMA lines crossing higher. In the lower time frames we have stochastic poised to push oversold while macd has a bear cross from the 4H picture. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears. Given the long daily wick immediate bias is for a bear market with a close below 1.5466 as our trigger for a new sell. Alternative entry will be a short from just under yesterdays high with tight stops above 1.5547.
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8563 minor / 0.8577 moderate / 0.8591 minor
Support: 0.8539 moderate / 0.8514 minor / 0.8498 minor
Kiwi has a confluence of buys from the daily charts with stochastic and macd seeing a new bullish cross following the push above 0.500 of yesterdays straddle. The daily close has a big white real body suggesting that we look for a follow through rally. Intraday we have mixed signals from the 4H picture with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is above the signal line. Candles has a bearish engulfing for the Wellington trade. Hourly charts for their part also has a confluence of bears at the moment with stochastic pushing for oversold levels and macd with a bear cross. Immediate risk actually calls for a pullback, a possible double top pattern in the making though taking too long to get a close under 0.8539 and we will look for base building and a bounce off the said price.
XAUUSD
Resistance: 1477.23 minor / 1487.79 moderate / 1480.55 moderate
Support: 1462.69 minor / 1447.83 minor / 1439.27 minor
Gold has managed to rally back to the 61.8 Fib retracement level of its recent sell-off from April. We appear to have a double top with a budding double top. Among indicators we have stochastic in overbought levels while macd is also rising from the daily picture. Currently we have hit the daily EMA lines. From the 4H picture we have mixed signals with stochastic poised at a bullish cross while macd is flat though technically bearish. Hourly charts for their part also see more mixed signals with macd crossing higher and stochastic coming off overbought levels. We have little sense of urgency though for now we are looking for a rejection from the 61.8 Fib level at 1487.79. Alternative entry will be a close under 1447.83.
2013-04-29 19:02:22
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-430-japanese-numbers-are-mixed
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