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Asian Session Notes (5/01/13): Its May Day
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0395 moderate / 1.0425 minor / 1.0444 moderate
Support: 1.0358 moderate / 1.0327 moderate / 1.0290 minor
Aussy has been bottoming out in the daily charts, with Tuesdays push above the EMA lines confirming the bullish reversal. Daily indicators has stochastic poised to push overbought while macd has also bottomed out, even as we are set to generate a ‘three outside up’ pattern. At the moment we have prices just above the 55D EMA and 38.2 Fib retracement of the sell-off from April 11. In the lower time frames we are seeing buys signals from both the 4H and hourly macd and stochastic, with the latter indicator looking to push overbought. Pattern wise we have also triggered an inverted SHS in the 4H charts. Note we have Australian Manufacturing Index from AIG due at 2330GMT with a bad read a possible excuse for us to see Aussy back under the daily EMA lines. Previous results had a 44.4 read. Otherwise we will look for base building above 1.0358 before taking the buy side of the market once more.
AUDJPY
Resistance: 101.02 minor / 101.53 moderate / 102.02 moderate
Support: 100.46 moderate / 100.00 psychological / 99.67 moderate
As with many of the Yen pairs we have AUDJPY seeing a whipsaw for Tuesday with prices stuck between the 21D and 34D EMA lines. Daily indicators as mixed signals for Aussy Yen with the stochastic in the process of crossing up while macd are bearish. Note we appear to be nearing the apex of a symmetric t triangle. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic just crossing higher while macd is at risk of a bear cross though technically bullish for now. Hourly charts has a bullish cross in the making for stochastic while macd is crossing lower at the moment. Given the mixed signals we prefer waiting for the Australian Manufacturing PMI and the Chinese Manufacturing PMI at 0100GMT. For the Chinese data a bearish surprise would likely see Aussy pairs diving, consensus forecast is at 50.8.
AUDCAD
Resistance: 1.0361 minor / 1.0495 moderate / 1.0529 moderate
Support: 1.0434 moderate / 1.0413 moderate / 1.0397 minor
AUDCAD has seen a huge sell-off since Thursday last week on a rejection from the daily EMA’s with charts triggering a double top and now indicators showing dead crosses from those EMA lines. We also have daily stochastic in oversold levels while macd is bearish as well. In intraday charts we have a potential double bottom in the making with a doji just above 1.0434 from the 4H picture, stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is dropping. From the hourly level we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic crossing lower and macd bottoming out. With Chinese and Australian data coming up it would be best to remain sidelined though a double bottom would be a potential trade, with the 1.0434 area as a bounce off point.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3186 minor / 1.3227 minor / 1.3264 moderate
Support: 1.3144 minor / 1.3113 moderate / 1.3075 minor
Euro saw a sharp rally Tuesday with prices set to close just under the daily highs. Among indicators we have a new bullish cross in daily macd while stochastic is pushing for overbought levels and prices did bounce off the daily EMA lines. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of buys with stochastic in overbought levels and mcd’s pushing up though the candles from midday New York to Wellington trade suggests a loss of momentum. Hourly charts for their part has stochastic at risk of crossing lower for a bearish divergence while macd has flattened out. Note we can view price action from midday Euro to the whole Bew York trade as a flag pattern. As such we are now looking for the next push up. Look for a close above 1.3186 to spark the next up leg or a bounce off 1.3113, the 38.2 Fib retracement level.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5547 minor / 1.5580 moderate / 1.5605 moderate
Support: 1.5524 moderate / 1.5500 psychological / 1.5479 moderate
We continue to hug the resistance line of a bullish channel in GBPUSD with Tuesday showing higher highs and lower lows failing to generate the reversal signalled by our monday ‘gravestone doji’. From indicators we have daily macd pushing higher while stochastic is in overbought territory, EMA lines as well are showing new golden crosses. From the 4H picture we have stochastic at risk of a bear cross while macd is also under the signal line. hourly charts has mixed signals with stochastic still pushing overbought and macd with a bear cross. Note we seem to have a flag at half mast with prices building a base from the 38.2 Fib retracement of yesterday’s rally. Immediate risk calls for a follow through rally a push for the 1.5629 area.
2013-04-30 18:31:24
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-50113-its-may-day
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