| Story Views | |
| Now: | |
| Last Hour: | |
| Last 24 Hours: | |
| Total: | |
Asian Session Notes 5/07/13: Waiting for the RBA
NZDUSD
Resistance: 0.8522 minor / 0.8552 moderate / 0.8582 moderate
Support: 0.8488 moderate / 0.8455(63) moderate / 0.8433 minor
Kiwi is looking set to close the daily candle with a bearish bias, considering its lower highs and real body though we face an event risk at 2245GMT. From indicators we have mixed signals with macd’s heading lower and stochastic pointing up. Note we face a gauntlet of bullish EMA lines as support. In the lower time frames 4H charts has a head and shoulder pattern though the neckline is sloped down increasing the risk of a false breakout. Indicators are mixed at this point with stochastic just crossing up while the 4H macd has also just crossed lower. Hourly charts are also mixed though in their case stochastic is dropping while macd has just crossed higher. For now we are waiting for the Labor Cost Index with conesus forecast calling for a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, firm numbers should help keep NZDUSD above the daily EMA lines while a big shortfall could see us triggering the head and shoulder pattern.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5548 moderate / 1.5574 minor / 1.5605 moderate
Support: 1.5518 minor / 1.5474 moderate / 1.5426 moderate
Cable has been congesting under the 50 Fib retracement level for the years sell-off since Wednesday of the previous week with resistance at 1.5604 getting stronger as it remain inviolate. Among indicators we have a flat macd though technically bullish while stochastic has come-off overbought levels. In 4H charts price action has been bearish though unable to break through the congestion floors with stochastic now crossing after failing to push oversold while macd continues with its bearish divergence. Hourly charts for their part has a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold while macd is also dropping. We have the Shop Price Index from the British Retail Consortium at 2301GMT with previous reads at 1.4%, absent a consensus forecast note that a strong read would likely lead to a retest of our key resistance area at 1.5605. A drop should see us pushing under 1.5518, a possible bearish entry point. We also view 1.5605 as a bearish entry. Note we are still looking forward to pulling back to the daily channel support line.
AUDUSD
Resistance: 1.0255 minor / 1.0273 minor / 1.0290 moderate
Support: 1.0242 minor / 1.0220 moderate / 1.0202 minor
Monday saw the Aussy selling off from the daily EMA’s once more though failing to take out the moderate support at 1.0220. From indicators we have a confluence of bears in the making with stochastic poised to cross lower along with the macd at the brink of its own bear cross. However we face a series of data and an interest rate announcement going forward. Ignore the first AIG Construction Index as this has been in contractioin for some time. Key data will be the Trade figure at 0130GMT, where a poor read would likely mean weakness and a possibility of pushing under 1.0220. We have consensus forecast calling for a 200 million surplus in March after the previous months deficit. About the same time we will also be seeing House Price Index figures with consensus at 1.9%. Note the days major event for Australia will be the RBA interest rate decision and policy statement. Should we see weakness in the two prior numbers that will likely create speculation of the RBA remaining dovish and argument for shorting the Aussy.
AUDJPY
Resistance: 102.06 moderate / 102.33 minor / 102.65 moderate
Support: 101.74 minor / 101.40 moderate / 101.06 minor
Combining our Wellington open with the rest of the monday candle will give us a ‘hanging man’ in daily charts for AUDJPY though the lows will be just above the 21D EMA. Despite the lack of enthusiasm for a sell-off, note we still have lower highs in the daily charts while stochastic is overbought, though macd risks a bullish crossover. In the lower timeframes we have a hammer in the 4H picture with a confluence of buys among the indicators, stochastic just crossing up and macd above the signal line. Hourly charts for their part has a flat macd, slightly under its signal line while stochastic is bearish. We face key economic figures at 0130GMT and an RBA rate decision at 0430GMT. That said it would better to wait for the releases before taking action though the charts does suggest that we once more looking for prices crashing through the daily EMA lines.
AUDCAD
Resistance: 1.0337 moderate / 1.0346 minor / 1.0367 moderate
Support: 1.0305 moderate / 1.0282(89) moderate / 1.0264 minor
Monday saw AUDCAD pricing in a dovish decision from the RBA today with price action at the moment in the process of taking out the previous swing lows at 1.0305. Daily indicators has a confluence of bears as attempts at mean reversion failed with stochastic now poised to push back under 20 and the macd lines also dropping. In intraday charts we have stochastic crawling in oversold levels while macd is also bearish from the 4H picture. Hourly indicators has a flat macd with the main line is above its signal while stochastic is looking to push oversold. Despite a technically bearish chart with data and an interest rate announcement coming up we prefer to defer taking action unless we see another deficit in Aussy trade and weakness in HPI which could keep the RBA on its toes for a possible resumption of the easing cycle. At this point remember that we could be seeing a ‘buy rumor’ phase with yesterdays drop and now risk a ‘sell the fact’ reaction if the numbers fail to disappoint.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3097 moderate / 1.3113 moderate / 1.3137 minor
Support: 13055(68) moderate / 1.3032 minor / 1.2988 minor
Euro saw a sell-off for monday, though the drop failed to take out its series of daily EMA lines from 1.3055 to 1.3068, 34D, 55D, and 21D EMA’s. Among indicators we have a confluence of bears from the daily picture with stochastic poised to push oversold while macd has just crossed lower. Note we may have a broadening top in the making with our higher highs and lower lows over the past month. Intraday we have mixed signals in 4H charts with a bearish macd and stochastic coming off oversold levels though we may be oscillating around 20. Hourly charts has a flat macd technical still under the signal though stochastic is at risk of a bullish cross. For now look for a close under the daily EMA’s to get a bear market going or a rejection from the 1.3097 region for another short.
GBPJPY
Resistance: 154.48 minor / 154.79 minor / 155.00 psychological
Support: 154.01 minor / 153.42 moderate / 15304 minor
Monday saw the range for Yen pairs contracting with GBPJPY seeing a high wave candle though at a smaller range. Daily indicators has an overbought stochastic while macd has also crossed up. Note we have a good base out of our 153.52 breakout point. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of bears with stochastic poised to push oversold while macds have also crossed lower Hourly charts for their part has triggered a small head and shoulder pattern while macd is bearish and stochastic looking to push lower. For now immediate risk would be to pullback to the 153.52 break out point though with little impetus from the UK we expect a limited range for the day.
Source: http://www.fxinstructor.com/blog/asian-session-notes-50713
