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GBPEUR Forecast – Both sides – 14 day forecast
GBPEUR rates are surprising many experts at the moment as it stays high even with the election around the corner. With the most undecided election in a generation less than a month away lots of people are asking what the forecast will be. There are two big arguments that are being put forward currently:
GBPEUR rates will climb further
This argument is put forward by the followers of Europe and the Greek story. As we get more and more chapters written it seems to continue to surprise the markets. The current page is about their next date next week. This is the 24th and when they need to put forward an agreeable proposal on budget cuts before the next loan value will be released. As we get closer to this even the uncertainty will probably weaken the Euros strength making it cheaper to buy.
GBPEUR rates will fall
This argument comes from most people in the UK who are seeing the political turmoil play out around the election next month. It seems very likely that the uncertainty about the political leadership going forward, the economic policy that will be implemented by whichever colour government is in place will slow economic grown and pull down Sterling’s value. What is worth remembering is that it is not just the kind of government that could be coming into power but also what they will bring with them. For example the Conservatives are promising a referendum on whether we stay within the EU, our largest trading partner. Labour are expected to spend more and increase the budget deficit and the Scottish National Party will probably want another referendum on Scotland’s membership in the UK. Lots of potential uncertainty and therefore Sterling weakness.
Economic Data
Outside of the above political events we also need to watch Economic data which traditionally drives the market. The next large event is the Inflation data for Europe on Friday. This is widely expected to show an improvement following the QE program the ECB started next month, so it seem probably that Friday will be a negative day for Euro buyers.
My View
I agree with all of the above and think that they are all strong arguments. I can see rates continuing to be very changeable over the next 3 weeks as a result of the above meaning that timing will be KEY in achieving the best exchange rates. (Register for SPIKE notifications by contacting [email protected])
I can see a mixture of the above happening. Rates to climb higher and then crash significantly. Anyone with Euros to buy should be very much in contact with a specialist currency provider like ourselves to get the proactive service helping them time the transfer. Alternatively if you are happy with the current level and think that the risk is to high again get in contact for access to our award winning exchange rates. Do this by contacting us on the number on the top of our website and ask for myself STEVE EAKINS or email myself directly through [email protected]
Source: http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/2015/04/15/gbpeur-forecast-both-sides-14-day-forecast/
