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market-ticker.org / by Karl Denninger / 2015-10-17
You’re a psychotic mass-murderer about to commit your horrific crime.
You walk into a place intending to shoot it up. Maybe it’s a school, maybe it’s a shopping mall, who cares. The important thing is that you’re intent on mass-murder and you are armed to the teeth.
As you walk in you survey your intended victims.
And here the story diverges into two scenarios.
In one you note on the way in a sign that says GUN FREE ZONE. You know this is backed up by a law. The place might be a school, a playground or some other public place. You’re reasonably sure there are no weapons there — other than yours, of course.
In the other you see some number of people with pistols on their hips.
Has anything just changed?
You bet it has.
In the second instance if there is exactly one such person you shoot him first.
But what if there are two or more and they’re not standing next to each other?
If you shoot one the other(s) get a free shot at you and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it. By the time you can target the second person with a firearm he’s going to get a round off in your direction. Your only hope is that he’s a poor marksman and you’re good.
But remember, the guy doing the shooting is psychotic and probably not particularly-skilled. After all, how many psychotics are calm, cool, collected and often practice with their weapons at the range?
Yes, the psychotic nutjob in the second scenario gets to commit exactly one murder, but his mass-murder fantasy has just been dashed. He won’t get off more than one or two shots before one of those people with guns drops him where he stands.
The same calculus happens to be true if the odds are that a number of people are carrying concealed.
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