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The biggest threat of Fukushima plant is believed to be the SFP of reactor4.
They say, the pool is set in the really unstable situation, it might not be able to stand another aftershock.
However, some of the problems are already promised to happen almost. One is the lack of nuclear workers, and another one is the deterioration of the equipment and storage of contaminated water.
All the coolant system were built provisionally. Actual Fukushima worker Happy11311 comments like this,
“many of these are improvised preparation made of roughly collected parts from all over Japan.
They didn’t even consider maintenance to build the equipment. Tepco was in a hurry, they only made it last for one year. The parts are not particularly for nuclear plants, they are for general usage. The parts will need to be replaced from now otherwise troubles will keep happening though I think Tepco won’t change it until it gets disordered.” [Link]
They are trying to renew the system, but due to the lack of resource, it’s not improving fast as it should be.
The parts of coolant system are dropping off one by one.
Since the beginning of September, coolant water injected to reactor1~3 has been decreasing and it’s not settled even by now. [Link]
In the beginning, Tepco stated they fixed it by eliminating the suspended materials in the strainer but soon after that, water started decreasing again. [Link] The reason is not known and the problem is still on-going. Even on 11/24/2012, Tepco increased the water amount for reactor1, 2 and 3 to cover the decrease of injection water. Tepco has made no explanation about when to solve this problem. [Link]
On the other hand, the water level of RPV (Fuel area) in reactor1 has also been in the decreasing trend.
At 5:00 of 7/12/2012 5:00, it was -1.24m. On 8/12/2012, it was -1.30m, it decreased to be -1.44m on 9/12/2012 and it dropped to be -1.60m on 10/12/2012. It’s -1.74m on 11/12/2012 and it marked the lowest level on 11/25/2012, which was -1.86m. There are some ups and downs, but it’s in the decreasing trend for sure. This fact has never been reported by Tepco or any official “news” site. The reason is not clear, but probably the crippled pressure vessel is leaking the water. [Link]
Where does the leaked water go ?
Fukushima Diary has been reporting the increasing radioactive density in seawater around Fukushima plant since mid November.
On 11/16/2012, radiation level of the seawater at reactor2 reached the highest level since August 2012. [Link] On 11/26/2012, Fukushima Diary reported radiation level at water intake of reactor1~4 is slowly increasing as well. [Link] and Today, we found out radioactivity density of the seawater is increased at 57% of tested locations offshore Fukushima. [Link]
About this problem, Tepco has made no statement.
Officially, most of the leaked water is supposed to be stocked in storage tank, but it’s becoming harder and harder to find a place to put tanks. In addition to the leaked water, about 400 tones of underground water flows to the plant every single day.
From the research of Fukushima Diary, 89.2% of contaminated water tank is already full. Newly extended tank will be full by 2016 too. [Link] Decommissioning Fukushima plant is told to take up to 40 years. However, contaminated water storage tank will be full in the first 5 years.
For the rest of 35 years, they must find new places for water storage but because land is limited, ground is weak, it’s becoming harder and harder to find a space. Also, the further they put the tanks, the more likely the pipe gets damaged because it runs long.
Some people question the seismic stability of the tanks as well.[Link] All We could do it just to hope the spilt water from the fallen tanks extinguish the fire of reactor4 like Pythagora Switch in case of aftershock.
Even massmedia is not in the mood of joking unusually. On 11/26/2012, Nikkei newspaper reported the serious situation of contaminated water storage situation.
They reported,
“At this moment, the tank for 240,000 tones of contaminated water is already full. Tepco is going to add the storage facility of 700,000 tones of water in three years. It’s already more than a half of Tokyo dome. Tepco started the construction to bypass underground water to avoid flowing into the reactors but the bypassed water has to be stocked as well.
The pipe to circulate contaminated water runs for 10km. Scattered debris, trucks and heavy machinery damaged the vinyl chloride pipe to cause contaminated water leakage.
They were relieved to fix them by last Autumn in 2011, but water started leaking again in late January. It leaked at 10 locations in the same day at the most due to the frozen water in the pipe.
Tepco is supposed to have changed most of the pipe to polyethylene one and attached heat insulating material before the second winter.
They could shorten the pipe by making it circulate at each reactor, but they are postponing the construction due to the shortage of resource. Managing contaminated water is an endless process.” [Link]
Nobody has estimated how much contaminated water will be produced by the time of decommissioning.