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Lower Grain Output Could Fuel China Inflation: Analyst

Friday, August 17, 2012 1:01
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China sharply increased its import of key grains, like corn, soybean and wheat the first half of this year. Total grain import at the end of June rose by 41.2% year-on-year. That's despite local authorities claiming domestic output has increased by 2.8%—a record since 1997. Assistant Professor Frank Tian Xie says official figures are questionable. [Frank Tian Xie, Assistant Professor of Marketing, University of South Carolina Aiken]: “We know the propaganda and its figures cannot be trusted. It's like the stock of grains they claim to have. Even Premier Wen Jiabao has to climb up the silo to check if there are grains there when he does inspections. Officials nationwide are deceiving each other, superiors cannot believe the figures given to them.” Xie believes output figures are lower than expected, and this could fuel inflation. [Frank Tian Xie, Assistant Professor of Marketing, University of South Carolina Aiken]: “Looking at the futures market, corn, soy bean and wheat prices are all climbing. Given the widespread flooding this year, summer crop yields is likely to drop. A big problem facing China now is economic stagnation and inflation. If the rising grain prices pushes up inflation this could directly affect social stability.” On Tuesday, China's agricultural ministry announced what it called the “worst infestation in a decade” of corn crops. Armyworms have attacked about 10% of the country's corn. Analysts say up to 2% of total yield could be wiped out. For more
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