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Obama interview in Atlantic indicates he poorly briefed on Israeli
Obama interview in Atlantic indicates he poorly briefed on Israeli =
Palestinian affairs and painfully silly about Iran
Dr. Aaron Lerner IMRA 2 March 2014
With Prime Minister Binyamin on his way to Washington, President Obama’s =
just released interview with The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg provides a =
clear picture as to just how poorly briefed he in on Israeli Palestinian =
affairs and painfully silly about Iran.
+ Painfully silly On Iran: “they are capable of changing;… even if that =
takes … 20 years, then that=92s very much an outcome we should desire.
Question: What logic is there to the U.S. plan not to apparently place any =
restrictions on Iranian weapons development and production (other than =
taking the last enrichment steps of the material for the nuclear warhead) =
while allowing Iran to retain the equipment to enrich uranium to weapons =
grade given that Mr. Obama concedes they may not change their dangerous way=
s =
for the next two decades?
+ Bad briefing on Israel: “the window is closing for a peace deal ..in part =
because of changes in demographics… There are going to be more =
Palestinians, not fewer Palestinians, as time goes on. There are going to b=
e =
more Arab-Israelis, not fewer Arab-Israelis, as time goes on.
While the American Jewish staffers and their Israeli Leftist pals continue =
to pitch the demographic argument, the figures keep moving in Israel’s =
favor, with Palestinian and Israeli Arab fertility rates declining while =
Jewish rates go up. Even those secular Russian immigrants whose cousins =
back home barely approached a sustaining fertility rate are having 3 and 4 =
kids in the Jewish Homeland.
And to make matters worse: Israelis are slowly starting to realize that th=
e =
REAL demographic threat would happen if a Palestinian state were created an=
d =
it was flooded with millions of Arabs who had someone in their family livin=
g =
for any period of time during the British Mandate.
Given how many dramatic twists and turns have recently taken place in the =
region and the world it doesn’t require much of an imagination to recogniz=
e =
that there are many plausible scenarios according to which Israel finds =
itself unable to cope with a flood of millions of Arabs crossing from the =
sovereign Palestinian state into what was left of Israel.
Keep in mind Mr. Obama’s warning: The condemnation of the international =
community can translate into a lack of cooperation when it comes to key =
security interests.
Again: pitching the demographic argument may work among fellow travelers – =
but it has long ago lost its punch among thinking Israelis.
+ Painfully silly argument: “We do not know what a successor to Abbas will =
look like.”
So Israel should cut a deal based on Mahmoud Abbas when there is no telling =
what kind of radical may take his place?
+ Bad sense of what is happening in the world: “situation will not improve”
Mr. Obama is the president of a country that is developing domestic energy =
resources at breakneck pace that promises to radically change the face of =
the world in the coming decades. And that includes the implementation of =
technologies that while not favored by the greens of the world have shown =
such success that even some European countries have opted to join in =
fracking shale. The British Geological Survey estimates there could be =
1,300 trillion cubic feet of shale gas in the north of England alone. And =
the more energy available from the West the better the situation for Israel.
Yes. There is every reason to believe that the situation for Israel will =
indeed improve.
+ Poor briefing: “The only thing that I’ve heard is, “We=92ll just keep on =
doing what we=92re doing, and deal with problems as they arise. And we’ll =
build settlements where we can. And where there are problems in the West =
Bank, we will deal with them forcefully. We=92ll cooperate or co-opt the =
Palestinian Authority.” And yet, at no point do you ever see an actual =
resolution to the problem.”
A suggestion: He talk with Minister Bennett. On the one hand he does in =
fact have a plan. On the other hand, it is silly to suggest that a =
necessary condition for a program is for it to provide “an actual resolutio=
n =
to the problem” – this when a realistic assessment is that as far as the =
Arabs are concerned Israel’s existence is “the problem”.
+ Skewed sense of the direction o developments: “there comes a point where =
you can=92t manage this anymore, and then you start having to make very =
difficult choices.”
An alternative narrative is that much of Palestinian street is disgusted =
with two decades of Oslo bred corruption and could very well breath a sigh =
of relief if a serious program was implemented based on a combination of =
full Israeli citizenship rights for Arabs in areas annexed along with rampe=
d =
up programs aimed at making the remaining Palestinian autonomous urban area=
s =
economic successes.
+ Painfully silly argument: ” Do you place restrictions on Arab-Israelis in =
ways that run counter to Israel=92s traditions?”
Oops. So is Mr. Obama suggesting that even if we give the Palestinians =
everything they want that we still stuck with terrible problem posed by the =
Israeli Arabs?
+ Painfully silly argument: ” It means reduced influence for us, the United =
States, in issues that are of interest to Israel. It=92s survivable, but it=
is =
not preferable.
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
Obama: ‘The Window Is Closing’ for a Viable Israel-Palestine Peace Deal
In an interview with The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, the president =
discusses Iran, Syria, and his view of the imperatives now facing Israel’s =
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Matt Ford Mar 2 2014, 4:09 PM ET
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/03/obama-the-window-i=
s-closing-for-a-viable-israel-palestine-peace-deal/284161/
President Obama spoke on Israeli-Palestinian peace, the Iranian nuclear =
negotiations, and the Syrian civil war in a wide-ranging interview with The =
Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg conducted on Thursday and released on Sunday =
afternoon.
After a global economic depression, the turmoil of the Arab Spring, the U.S=
. =
military’s withdrawal from Iraq, and a catastrophic civil war in neighborin=
g =
Syria, Obama sees a much different Middle East than when he took office. =
Perhaps the most significant change is the growing sense of rapprochement =
between Iran and the great powers as they inch closer to a diplomatic deal =
on the Islamic republic’s nuclear program. For Obama, this progress comes =
despite Iran’s other activities in the region.
OBAMA: Here=92s what I understand. For years now, Iran has been an =
irresponsible international actor. They’ve sponsored terrorism. They have =
threatened their neighbors. They have financed actions that have killed =
people in neighboring states.
And Iran has also exploited or fanned sectarian divisions in other =
countries. In light of that record, it=92s completely understandable for ot=
her =
countries to be not only hostile towards Iran but also doubtful about the =
possibilities of Iran changing. I get that. But societies do change — I =
think there is a difference between an active hostility and sponsoring of =
terrorism and mischief, and a country that you=92re in competition with and =
you don=92t like but it’s not blowing up homes in your country or trying to =
overthrow your government.
GOLDBERG: And you feel there=92s a real opportunity to achieve a genuine =
breakthrough?
OBAMA: Here=92s my view. Set aside Iranian motives. Let=92s assume that Ira=
n is =
not going to change. It=92s a theocracy. It=92s anti-Semitic. It is anti-Su=
nni. =
And the new leaders are just for show. Let=92s assume all that. If we can =
ensure that they don=92t have nuclear weapons, then we have at least preven=
ted =
them from bullying their neighbors, or heaven forbid, using those weapons, =
and the other misbehavior they=92re engaging in is manageable.
If, on the other hand, they are capable of changing; if, in fact, as a =
consequence of a deal on their nuclear program those voices and trends =
inside of Iran are strengthened, and their economy becomes more integrated =
into the international community, and there=92s more travel and greater =
openness, even if that takes a decade or 15 years or 20 years, then that=92=
s =
very much an outcome we should desire.
Negotiations with Iran are closely linked to another perennial American =
diplomatic endeavor: resolving the long-standing conflict between Israel an=
d =
Palestine. Since Obama won re-election over a year ago, U.S. Secretary of =
State John Kerry has spear-headed the administration’s toughest push yet on =
advancing the peace process. Kerry’s efforts have borne some tentative sign=
s =
of progress, with a framework accord planned to be announced in the coming =
weeks.
At times, the Obama administration’s increased sense of urgency has caused =
friction with Israeli officials. Israeli defense minister Moshe Yaalon =
publicly apologized in January after telling an Israeli newspaper that Kerr=
y =
is “acting out of misplaced obsession and messianic fervor.” When Kerry =
warned that boycotts against Israel could intensify without a peace deal, =
Israeli minister of strategic affairs Yuval Steinitz retorted that Israel =
“cannot be expected to negotiate with a gun to its head.”
GOLDBERG: Let me read you something that John Kerry told the American Jewis=
h =
Committee not long ago: =93We=92re running out of time. We=92re running out=
of =
possibilities. And let=92s be clear: If we do not succeed now — and I know=
I=92m =
raising those stakes — but if we do not succeed now, we may not get anothe=
r =
chance.=94 He has also suggested strongly that there might be a third intif=
ada =
down the road and that if this peace process doesn=92t work, Israel itself =
could be facing international isolation and boycott. Do you agree with this =
assessment? Is this the last chance?
OBAMA: Well, look, I=92m a congenital optimist. And, obviously, this is a =
conflict that has gone on for decades. And humanity has a way of muddling =
through, even in difficult circumstances. So you never know how things play =
themselves out.
But John Kerry, somebody who has been a fierce advocate and defender on =
behalf of Israel for decades now, I think he has been simply stating what =
observers inside of Israel and outside of Israel recognize, which is that =
with each successive year, the window is closing for a peace deal that both =
the Israelis can accept and the Palestinians can accept — in part because =
of changes in demographics; in part because of what’s been happening with =
settlements; in part because Abbas is getting older, and I think nobody =
would dispute that whatever disagreements you may have with him, he has =
proven himself to be somebody who has been committed to nonviolence and =
diplomatic efforts to resolve this issue. We do not know what a successor t=
o =
Abbas will look like.
[...]
I believe that President Abbas is sincere about his willingness to recogniz=
e =
Israel and its right to exist, to recognize Israel=92s legitimate security =
needs, to shun violence, to resolve these issues in a diplomatic fashion =
that meets the concerns of the people of Israel. And I think that this is a =
rare quality not just within the Palestinian territories, but in the Middle =
East generally. For us not to seize that opportunity would be a mistake. An=
d =
I think John is referring to that fact.
We don=92t know exactly what would happen. What we know is that it gets har=
der =
by the day. What we also know is that Israel has become more isolated =
internationally. We had to stand up in the Security Council in ways that 20 =
years ago would have involved far more European support, far more support =
from other parts of the world when it comes to Israel=92s position. And tha=
t=92s =
a reflection of a genuine sense on the part of a lot of countries out there =
that this issue continues to fester, is not getting resolved, and that =
nobody is willing to take the leap to bring it to closure.
Another challenge for Obama’s efforts toward Israeli-Palestinian peace is =
his rocky relationship with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The =
two leaders are scheduled to meet this week. Netanyahu, who took the helm o=
f =
the Israeli government for a second time two months after Obama’s first =
inauguration, vowed to “stand steadfast” against “various pressures” on =
Israel. Speaking with Goldberg, Obama struck an amicable chord.
GOLDBERG: My impression watching your relationship with Netanyahu over the =
years is that you admire his intelligence and you admire his political =
skill, but you also get frustrated by an inability or unwillingness on his =
part to spend political capital — in terms of risking coalition =
partnerships — in order to embrace what he says he accepts, a two-state =
solution. Is that a fair statement? When he comes to Washington, how hard =
are you going to push him out of his comfort zone?
OBAMA: What is absolutely true is Prime Minister Netanyahu is smart. He is =
tough. He is a great communicator. He is obviously a very skilled =
politician. And I take him at his word when he says that he sees the =
necessity of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I think he =
genuinely believes that.
I also think that politics in Israel around this issue are very difficult. =
You have the chaos that=92s been swirling around the Middle East. People lo=
ok =
at what’s happening in Syria. They look at what=92s happening in Lebanon. =
Obviously, they look at what=92s happening in Gaza. And understandably a lo=
t =
of people ask themselves, “Can we afford to have potential chaos at our =
borders, so close to our cities?” So he is dealing with all of that, and I =
get that.
What I’ve said to him privately is the same thing that I say publicly, whic=
h =
is the situation will not improve or resolve itself. This is not a situatio=
n =
where you wait and the problem goes away. There are going to be more =
Palestinians, not fewer Palestinians, as time goes on. There are going to b=
e =
more Arab-Israelis, not fewer Arab-Israelis, as time goes on.
And for Bibi to seize the moment in a way that perhaps only he can, =
precisely because of the political tradition that he comes out of and the =
credibility he has with the right inside of Israel, for him to seize this =
moment is perhaps the greatest gift he could give to future generations of =
Israelis. But it=92s hard. And as somebody who occupies a fairly tough job =
himself, I=92m always sympathetic to somebody else=92s politics.
But he also mixed sensitivity with concern. Without a viable peace deal to =
resolve the West Bank occupation and the status of Palestinians and Arab =
Israelis, Obama questioned what the long-term effects on Israeli society an=
d =
political culture would be.
OBAMA: I have not yet heard, however, a persuasive vision of how Israel =
survives as a democracy and a Jewish state at peace with its neighbors in =
the absence of a peace deal with the Palestinians and a two-state solution. =
Nobody has presented me a credible scenario.
The only thing that I’ve heard is, “We=92ll just keep on doing what we=92re =
doing, and deal with problems as they arise. And we’ll build settlements =
where we can. And where there are problems in the West Bank, we will deal =
with them forcefully. We=92ll cooperate or co-opt the Palestinian Authority=
.” =
And yet, at no point do you ever see an actual resolution to the problem.
[...]
It=92s maintenance of a chronic situation. And my assessment, which is shar=
ed =
by a number of Israeli observers, I think, is there comes a point where you =
can=92t manage this anymore, and then you start having to make very difficu=
lt =
choices. Do you resign yourself to what amounts to a permanent occupation o=
f =
the West Bank? Is that the character of Israel as a state for a long period =
of time? Do you perpetuate, over the course of a decade or two decades, mor=
e =
and more restrictive policies in terms of Palestinian movement? Do you plac=
e =
restrictions on Arab-Israelis in ways that run counter to Israel=92s =
traditions?
This, Obama fears, could weaken Israel’s position in future negotiations, =
especially as Europe and other members of the international community grow =
increasingly critical of Israeli policies.
OBAMA: Look, sometimes people are dismissive of multilateral institutions =
and the United Nations and the EU [European Union] and the high commissione=
r =
of such and such. And sometimes there=92s good reason to be dismissive. The=
re=92s =
a lot of hot air and rhetoric and posturing that may not always mean much. =
But in today=92s world, where power is much more diffuse, where the threats =
that any state or peoples face can come from non-state actors and =
asymmetrical threats, and where international cooperation is needed in orde=
r =
to deal with those threats, the absence of international goodwill makes you =
less safe. The condemnation of the international community can translate =
into a lack of cooperation when it comes to key security interests. It mean=
s =
reduced influence for us, the United States, in issues that are of interest =
to Israel. It=92s survivable, but it is not preferable.
Whatever cautious optimism Obama has for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations =
and negotiations with Iran did not extend to Syria. Earlier last month, =
Bashar al-Assad’s regime missed a February 5 deadline to transport all of =
its estimated 1,300-ton chemical weapons stockpile out of the country, with =
only 11% of its chemical weapons supply moved.
The U.S., which brokered the disarmament deal with Russia last year after a =
deadly chemical weapons attack killed over 1,000 Syrians in a Damascus =
suburb, accused the Syrian government of dragging its feet in implementing =
the deal. Diplomats hammered out a new timetable last week that hopes to =
complete the challenge by August. Obama acknowledged critics of his Syria =
policy by pointing out the lack of viable alternatives.
GOLDBERG: I was reading your Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech last night=
, =
and I wanted to quote one thing you said: =93I believe that force can be =
justified on humanitarian grounds, as it was in the Balkans, or in other =
places that have been scarred by war. Inaction tears at our conscience and =
can lead to more costly intervention later.=94
I was really struck by that last sentence. I=92m wondering at what point in =
Syria does it become too much to bear? I=92m not talking about the bifurcat=
ed =
argument, boots on the ground or nothing, but what does Assad have to do to =
provoke an American-led military response? Another way of asking this is: I=
f =
you could roll back the clock three years, could you have done more to buil=
d =
up the more-moderate opposition groups?
OBAMA: I think those who believe that two years ago, or three years ago, =
there was some swift resolution to this thing had we acted more forcefully, =
fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the conflict in Syria and the =
conditions on the ground there.
When you have a professional army that is well-armed and sponsored by two =
large states who have huge stakes in this, and they are fighting against a =
farmer, a carpenter, an engineer who started out as protesters and suddenly =
now see themselves in the midst of a civil conflict — the notion that we =
could have, in a clean way that didn’t commit U.S. military forces, changed =
the equation on the ground there was never true.
Obama also challenged the conventional wisdom that Bashar al-Assad and his =
allies are “winning” the bloody civil war that will enter its third year =
later this month with over 200,000 dead and millions displaced.
OBAMA: Over the last two years I have pushed our teams to find out what are =
the best options in a bad situation. And we will continue to do everything =
we can to bring about a political resolution, to pressure the Russians and =
the Iranians, indicating to them that it is not in their interests to be =
involved in a perpetual war.
I’m always darkly amused by this notion that somehow Iran has won in Syria. =
I mean, you hear sometimes people saying, “They=92re winning in Syria.” And =
you say, “This was their one friend in the Arab world, a member of the Arab =
League, and it is now in rubble.” It=92s bleeding them because they=92re ha=
ving =
to send in billions of dollars. Their key proxy, Hezbollah, which had a ver=
y =
comfortable and powerful perch in Lebanon, now finds itself attacked by =
Sunni extremists. This isn=92t good for Iran. They=92re losing as much as =
anybody. The Russians find their one friend in the region in rubble and =
delegitimized.
And although Obama concluded the interview with a final note on his =
administration’s policy towards Syria, his words also reflect the broader =
challenges of U.S. foreign policy in an increasingly unstable world.
There is a great desire not just to stand there, but to do something. We ar=
e =
doing a lot; we have to do more. But we have to make sure that what we do =
does not make a situation worse or engulf us in yet another massive =
enterprise at a time when we have great demands here at home and a lot of =
international obligations abroad. =
________________________________________
IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis
Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on A=
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Source: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=63334
