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New Post-debate Poll: Trump still in the lead. Fiorina moves to fourth place.

Thursday, September 24, 2015 6:25
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(Before It's News)

There is a new poll out from FoxNews that is only interesting for two reasons. First, it indicates that the debate did not move the needle much one way or the other. Second, some of the cross tabs are completely insane.

Trump remains in the lead.

Trump commands 26 percent support. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, meanwhile, ranks second with 18 percent.
Trump led an August version of the poll with 25 percent, followed by Carson at 12 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100% (R-Texas) at 10 percent.
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 92% (R-Fla.) tied for third place in Fox’s poll with 9 percent apiece.
Cruz took fifth place with 8 percent, and former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) took sixth with 7 percent.
Trump, Carson, Fiorina and Rubio have all gone up since the August version of the poll. Trump had 25 percent then, while Carson had 12 percent, Fiorina had 5 percent and Rubio 4 percent.
Bush and Cruz, meanwhile, have slid since August. Bush had 15 percent in that survey, and Cruz 10 percent.

Fox News’ latest sampling said its results stem from a deep dissatisfaction among Republican voters with their party’s political establishment.
It found 62 percent of GOP primary voters feel “betrayed” by members of their political party serving in public office.
Another 66 percent said the Republican-led Congress had not done enough to counter President Obama’s agenda.
Carson and Fiorina have shown movement. It is arguable whether Ted Cruz has went down or not. In most polls he comes in at about 7% and has been there since polling started.  Trump’s support, as I mentioned yesterday, seems to have reached a plateau. Bush’s slide into irrelevance is becoming obvious the more polls that come in. Fiorina’s improvement in the polls is probably not sufficient give her campaign the momentum it will need. When the FEC posts the quarterly fundraising numbers we’ll have a better idea of how real she is.

Wacky crosstabs.

I’m always hesitant to comment on crosstabs because when a poll is dividing its sample between Republicans and Democrats the probability of something untoward happening in the even smaller crosstab samples goes up exponentially. For instance:
The favorites among white evangelical Christians voting in the Republican primary are Trump (29 percent), Carson (21 percent) and Cruz (12 percent).

The top picks among self-described “very” conservatives voting in the GOP primary are Carson (23 percent), Trump (22 percent), Cruz (13 percent) and Rubio (11 percent).

It just seems bizarre to me that Evangelicals, at least those who describe themselves as such, would break towards Trump. Not saying it couldn’t happen but it is… an exotic finding.

By the same token, I find it difficult to wrap my head around 45% of “very conservative” voters heading to some of the least conservative guys in the field. If posted in the Comments before about my queasiness with taking self-reported political beliefs serious enough to apply quantitative analysis to them. We really don’t know what these “very conservative” people believe but, if this is to be believed, a large chunk of them aren’t voting conservative.

The post New Post-debate Poll: Trump still in the lead. Fiorina moves to fourth place. appeared first on RedState.


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