Iran: Climax of Domestic Disputes in Rafsanjani’s Remarks
The recent remarks made by former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani over a committee examining potential candidates to be the next supreme leader have broken a taboo of talking publicly about the extremely sensitive topic of succession in Iran. Yet more importantly, this is a reflection of internal disputes flaring inside the regime in Tehran and reaching its climax.
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Rafsanjani’s remarks should be reviewed from the perspective of domestic conflicts inside the mullahs’ regime that have been in the making for over 35 years now. Any mentioning of such issues are specifically targeting Iranian regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei, any emphasis on a leadership “council” and even going as far as forming a group for this very cause is a major indication of tensions escalating from within Iran.
Rafsanjani on Sunday referred to an Iranian committee reviewing different candidates to replace Khamenei, adding the regime’s Assembly of Experts – a clerical body that is assigned to appoint the supreme leader – is ready to elect a “leadership council if needed” instead of a supreme leading figure that sits on the throne for life.
Even after Khamenei, already 75, underwent surgery last year for prostate cancer, public talks regarding who would succeed him never truly gained the necessary momentum in official circles fearing the risk of being seen as undermining Iran’s most powerful man.
The developments in 2015 have all delivered major setbacks for Iran. The July nuclear pact in Vienna implemented to the regime a major setback on its nuclear weapon drive. A series of defeats in Syria with increasing casualties on the ground delivered severe blows to the regime’s plans in the Middle East.
And the formation of an Arab coalition in Yemen, and now a 35-country Islamic alliance to tackle terrorism that have excluded Iran and all its allies in the region, have led to a decreasing hegemony for Tehran and destroyed its image for the outside world.
All these events are considered severe blows to Khamenei himself as the regime’s supreme leader and his iron grip over the entire apparatus. This issue by itself will have serious consequences for the mullahs’ regime in its entirety.
In such conditions Rafsanjani is desperately attempting to save and revive the lethally ailing mullahs’ regime by raising the issue of a leadership council and searching for a Khamenei replacement. On the other hand, he is settling the scores with Khamenei in an attempt to revive his own lost stature. However, the post of the supreme leader can only be defined in Khamenei, and if he falls, the entire regime goes down with him.
The mullahs in Iran are now more vulnerable than ever before, and if the international community stands firm against evil plans in the region, it will crumble very quickly.
With elections in the horizon next February for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts these talks and the aftermath will become more common day by day.
The assembly of 82 selected mullahs is supposedly missioned to elect, monitor and even render unqualified the supreme leader.
Rafsanjani’s recent remarks may also be aimed at campaigning public support for the February elections and his allies against his archrival, Khamenei. However, since all candidates for any so-called election in Iran are vetted by the ultraconservative Guardian Council – with leading members directly appointed by the supreme leader for the supposed task of interpreting what they call the constitution – this possibility for now looks very slim.
All in all, this climax of domestic disputes provides a historic opportunity for the world now and it must rise to the occasion, considering the fact that regime change in Iran is the only way forward to save the nations of the Middle East from the catastrophes engulfing various countries in the region, including Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran itself and other countries that suffer from this regime’s crimes.
Connect with Shahriar Kia on Twitter: @shahriarkia
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